Tezos Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Move, Key Supports Under Pressure

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• XTZ/USDT formed a bullish harami and a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling internal market indecision and potential reversal cues.• Price surged from 0.6468 to 0.6903 during the 24-hour period, but ended near 0.6544 amid a massive volume dump in the final hour.• RSI overbought levels in the early hours gave way to a sharp decline, confirming a loss of upward momentum.• Volatility expanded as price moved outside upper Bollinger Bands for much of the session before collapsing.• A key support at 0.6611 was broken, now acting as a potential reversal zone ahead of 0.6468.

XTZ/USDT opened at 0.6636 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET and surged to 0.6903 before retreating to 0.6544 by 12:00 ET the next day. Price action reflected high volatility, with a 20%+ range and a total notional turnover of $10,912,692. The session saw total volume of 1.14 million contracts, peaking sharply in the final hour on the 100,000+ contract candle closing at 0.6544.

Structure & Formations

Early buyers pushed XTZ/USDT above the 0.67–0.68 range, forming a bullish harami pattern before a bearish engulfing candle on the 0.6828–0.6794 formation reversed the trend. A doji formed on the 0.6755–0.6764 candle at 02:00 ET, suggesting indecision. The 0.6611 level, a previous support, was breached and is now a key watch zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed twice, with the 20-period dropping below the 50-period into a death cross pattern. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) all remain bearish, reinforcing the idea that XTZ is likely to retest the 0.6468–0.6611 range.

MACD & RSI

RSI surged into overbought territory in the early session before crashing toward oversold levels, reflecting a strong sell-off. MACD remained negative throughout the day, with a bearish crossover confirming the downward bias. The histogram showed a sharp contraction in bullish momentum as the sell-off accelerated after 15:00 ET.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded outside the upper band for much of the session, with volatility peaking at 0.6903. As price collapsed toward the end, it fell well below the lower band, suggesting a high level of uncertainty. The next key retest for the bands will be whether XTZ holds above the 0.6611–0.6711 mid-range.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover surged to over $148,000 on the 0.6819–0.6804 candle at 09:15 ET, followed by a massive $249,000 turnover on the 0.6544 closing candle at 16:00 ET. The divergence between volume and price—particularly in the final candle—suggests exhaustion. If price continues to fall below 0.6611 without follow-through volume, bearish conviction may wane.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 0.6468–0.6903 swing show 0.6611 as the 50% retracement and 0.6668 as the 38.2% level. Price appears to find initial resistance at 0.6668 and 0.6711. If XTZ/USDT breaks below 0.6611, the next major level would be at 0.6527 (61.8%).

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposed involves a mean-reversion setup triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern near key Fibonacci levels (38.2% and 50%) combined with RSI entering overbought territory. The hypothesis suggests entering short positions at 0.6611 (post-breakout) with a stop-loss above 0.6711 and a target at 0.6468–0.6611. Given the large volume on the 0.6544 candle and the 50-period MA crossing below the 20-period MA, this strategy may offer a high-probability trade setup, provided volatility remains elevated and momentum stays bearish.