Texas Pacific Land Rises 2.99% to $882.39 Amid Technical Rebound Signals

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) advanced 2.99% to close at $882.39 on 2025-08-13, marking its second consecutive gain with a two-day rally of 3.22%, accompanied by a trading volume of 155,398 shares. This recovery follows a sharp decline to $867.46 on August 7th (–8.75%), with technical indicators now suggesting potential inflection points.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reflect a potential reversal signal. The August 13th session formed a long lower shadow (low: $845.56, close: $882.39), indicating rejection of lower prices and buyer accumulation after the preceding downtrend. This bullish hammer-like pattern near the $845–$852 support zone, combined with two consecutive green candles, suggests waning bearish momentum. Key resistance is established at $895–$900, while sustained closes below $845 may invalidate this signal.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration underscores persistent bearish pressure. The 50-day MA (approximately $1,040), 100-day MA (~$1,100), and 200-day MA (~$1,200) all trend downward, with the current price ($882) trading below all three averages. The death cross (50-day below 200-day) since May 2025 continues to govern the primary downtrend. Any near-term recovery would need to breach the declining 50-day MA to signal trend mitigation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum as its signal line converges, suggesting potential equilibrium. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator (particularly the %K and %D lines) is rebounding from oversold territory below 20, with a bullish crossover emerging. This alignment implies short-term upside potential, though sustained bullish confirmation would require MACD crossing above its signal line alongside KDJ holding above 50.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands highlight elevated volatility, with the August 7th plunge widening the bands significantly. Recent price action near the lower band has transitioned to a mid-band test (~$910), reflecting reduced downward momentum. While no acute squeeze is evident, the bands remain 15% wider than their 30-day average, implying ongoing volatility risks. A close above the 20-day SMA (mid-band) could signal stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns offer mixed signals. The August 7th sell-off (300,884 shares) featured climactic volume, potentially exhausting sellers. However, the subsequent rebound saw relatively muted volume (119,854 and 155,398 shares), raising sustainability concerns. The 5-day volume average remains 25% below the 30-day mean, indicating tepid conviction. A decisive breakout above $900 on expanding volume would validate accumulation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded from 28 (near oversold) to 37 after the two-day rally, reflecting modestly improving momentum but remaining below the neutral 50 threshold. While no longer oversold, the RSI’s position below 50 aligns with the broader downtrend. Notably, the absence of bullish divergence during the August lows suggests underlying weakness. A sustained rise above 50 is needed to signal improving momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the July 30–August 7 decline (high: $997.69, low: $863.61), key retracement zones emerge: 23.6% ($895), 38.2% ($915), and 50% ($930). The current price ($882) struggles below the 23.6% threshold, reinforcing this as immediate resistance. A breakout above $895 could open a path toward $915, while failure here may signal a retest of the $863 low. Confluence exists at $895, aligning with Bollinger’s mid-band and psychological resistance.
Confluence and Divergence
Convergence appears at the $895–$910 resistance zone, where Fibonacci, Bollinger’s mid-band, and the psychological $900 barrier intersect. Conversely, bearish divergence remains evident as moving averages and RSI trends conflict with short-term momentum indicators. The volume-price disconnect during the rebound further tempers bullish conviction. Traders should monitor the $895 breakout level, with upside confirmation requiring simultaneous closes above this resistance and the RSI reclaiming 50. A failure below $845 would expose the August low ($863).