Texas Pacific Land Extends Losses to 6.60% as Bearish Indicators Dominate Technical Outlook

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) closed at $931.28 in its latest session, marking a 0.65% decline and extending its losing streak to three consecutive days, resulting in a significant 6.60% drop over this period. This recent downward pressure forms part of a larger correction within the available data set and warrants a detailed technical analysis using the specified methods.
Candlestick Theory
A cluster of bearish candles dominates TPL's recent price action, culminating in a three-day decline with the latest candle closing near its low ($931.28 vs. low $916.72). This pattern signals persistent selling pressure. Key resistance is now firmly established around the recent highs near $1000-$1020, evidenced by repeated rejections earlier this month. The breach below the psychological $1000 level and the prior swing low around $956-$970 confirms its new role as resistance. Immediate support is forming around the $916.72-$920 range from the latest low. A break below this could target the significant low near $870 established in March 2025. The sustained downward candles, closing near their lows, suggest sellers remain in control.
Moving Average Theory
TPL is trading decisively below key moving averages, reflecting a deteriorating medium-to-long term trend. The price dipped below the 50-day moving average (likely around $1050-$1070 based on the data) during the significant July 15th drop. More critically, it has also fallen below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (estimated around $1150 and $1200 respectively), suggesting a bearish shift in longer-term sentiment. These averages, particularly the 50-day and 100-day MAs, now act as substantial resistance layers overhead. For the downtrend to potentially reverse, a decisive break back above these MAs, starting with the 50-day, would be a necessary, though not guaranteed, signal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD indicator (typically calculated with periods like 12,26,9) is firmly in bearish territory, with the MACD line likely below the signal line and both well beneath zero. This signals strong downward momentum and shows no signs of a bullish crossover imminent. Concurrently, the KDJ indicator (commonly 9,3,3 periods) is nearing or has entered oversold territory. The %K line appears positioned near or below the 20 level, potentially close to or crossing below the %D line. While this oversold KDJ reading suggests the possibility of a short-term bounce due to exhaustion in selling pressure, the persistently bearish MACD cautions that any bounce may be weak or unsustainable within the overarching downtrend. There is divergence here: MACD confirms the downtrend strength, KDJ hints at oversold conditions.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-period) are expanding, indicating increasing volatility driven primarily by the recent sharp price decline. The price is currently pressing against the lower Bollinger Band (around $910-$920), a zone that often acts as support or triggers a minor rebound. Band expansion during a downtrend typically signals acceleration of the move. A sustained close below the lower band would be a strong bearish signal, potentially leading to further downside targeting the next historical support levels. Conversely, a move back inside the bands could indicate a pause or minor reversal attempt. However, the expansion confirms heightened bearish momentum.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis provides critical context to the recent decline. Trading volume spiked significantly during the large down day on July 15th (174,639 shares) and remained relatively elevated over the subsequent down days compared to volume during the prior consolidation phase. This surge in volume on down days validates the bearish price movement, signaling strong conviction behind the selling pressure. It suggests the current downtrend has participation beyond simple technical selling. For any bullish reversal attempt to be credible, a significant increase in volume on an up day, particularly one breaking above key resistance or moving averages, would be required. Currently, volume confirms the bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Based on the significant price drop over the last three days and the past week, the RSI (commonly 14-period) for TPL is likely in the range of approximately 35, descending towards oversold territory (<30) but not yet there. This aligns with the KDJ indicator, indicating bearish momentum but approaching levels that historically suggest the potential for a temporary relief rally or consolidation due to excessive short-term selling pressure. However, the crucial caveat is that oversold readings can persist, and even deepen, during strong downtrends. An RSI below 30 signals oversold conditions but is not a reliable timing signal for a reversal; confirmation from price action or other indicators is essential. Currently, the RSI reading supports the view of strong downward momentum approaching, but not yet reaching, extreme levels.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the dominant trend move within this dataset – specifically the major rally from the October 2024 low near $970 to the April 2025 peak around $1869 – highlights crucial support zones. The price has already breached the 50% retracement level ($1419.5). The current price action ($931.28) is testing the significant 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $1283. Crucially, the price has fallen significantly below this level ($1283), showing strong bearish momentum. The next major technical support lies at the 78.6% Fibonacci level near $1135-$1140. This zone also converges with the psychologically important $1100 level and the identified Bollinger Band support. A failure to hold the $900-$920 area could open the path towards retesting the entire rally origin near $970. The breach below key retracement levels reinforces the bearish outlook.