Texas Pacific Land Drops 5.30% to $982.65 Marking Three-Day 6.51% Decline

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) closed at $982.65, declining 5.30% in the latest session and marking a three-day consecutive loss totaling 6.51%. This selling pressure reflects near-term bearish sentiment and warrants technical examination across multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show a bearish pattern constellation. The current three-day decline forms a descending trio with expanding red candles, indicating intensified selling momentum. Key resistance now crystallizes near $1,040–$1,050, aligning with the July 10–11 consolidation range and the 50-day moving average (MA). Support emerges at $980, which previously acted as resistance in early April 2025 and coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A close below $980 may trigger further downside toward the $920–$940 zone.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($1,112) crossed below the 200-day MA ($1,178) in late June 2025, confirming a long-term bearish "death cross." Price remains below all key MAs (50/100/200-day), establishing a downtrend hierarchy. The widening gap between the 50-day and 200-day MA reinforces bearish structural pressure. Any rebound would face layered resistance near the 50-day MA ($1,112) and the 100-day MA ($1,160).
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram (-28) resides deep in negative territory below its signal line, showing no immediate reversal divergence. KDJ oscillators reflect oversold conditions (K: 18, D: 22, J: 10), though sustained sub-30 readings since mid-July 2025 suggest prolonged downward momentum. While KDJ’s oversold status hints at a technical bounce, the absence of bullish MACD convergence warrants caution.
Bollinger Bands
Price trades near the lower Bollinger Band ($975), with bands expanding sharply during the July sell-off—indicating rising volatility favoring bears. The pronounced band expansion after June’s consolidation signals continuation potential. A reclaim of the 20-day SMA (mid-Band, $1,068) is needed to neutralize downside momentum.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution days dominated recent declines. The July 15 sell-off recorded 174,418 shares traded—35% above the 30-day average—validating bearish conviction. Conversely, modest volume during July 8–11 rallies signaled weak buying interest. Sustained high volume below $980 may accelerate declines, while a low-volume rebound would lack credibility.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (31.6) approaches oversold territory (<30) but hasn’t breached it since April 2025. Prior oversold RSI dips in April and June triggered short-term bounces, but subsequent rallies faltered near 50–55 RSI—characteristic of bear markets. Current RSI divergence is absent, suggesting no imminent reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $756.05 (August 5, 2024) and high of $1,730 (November 22, 2024):
- 38.2% retracement ($1,172) acted as resistance in late June 2025.
- 61.8% retracement ($978) aligns precisely with current price and historical support. Confluence here increases reversal probability. A breach targets the 78.6% level ($920).
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Confluence at $980 (Fibonacci 61.8%, horizontal support, and Bollinger Lower Band) heightens reversal potential. However, the lack of bullish divergence in MACD/RSI and the bearish MA hierarchy indicate dominance by sellers. Notably, oversold KDJ signals contradict the unbroken MACD downtrend—a divergence suggesting indecision. While a technical bounce near $980 seems increasingly likely, sustained recovery requires volume-backed clearance above the 50-day MA ($1,112) and RSI surpassing 55. Until then, the structure favors downside probes.