Texas Pacific Land Drops 3.91% to $1,033.92 Amid Bearish Technical Signals

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) declined 3.91% in the most recent session, closing at $1,033.92 with above-average volume ($121.55M), signaling potential bearish continuation pressure. This decline occurred after recent attempts to stabilize near the $1,060 level failed, breaching key short-term support.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals significant bearish signals. The July 3rd session formed a gravestone doji (high: $1,080.47, close: $1,075.97), indicating rejection near $1,080 resistance. This was followed by three consecutive bearish candles culminating in the July 7th large red candle breaking below the psychological $1,050 support. This breakdown suggests sustained selling pressure, establishing $1,033 as immediate support. Key resistance now consolidates near $1,080-$1,100 – a zone that capped rallies in early July. Historical swing low support near $980 remains critical long-term.
Moving Average Theory
The moving averages depict a pronounced downtrend. TPL trades decisively below its 50-day (~$1,080), 100-day (~$1,180), and 200-day (~$1,250) SMAs. Crucially, the 50-day SMA has crossed below the 200-day SMA (a "death cross"), a bearish long-term signal last seen during the April downturn. Short-term averages (10-day, 20-day) are accelerating downward, reinforcing negative momentum. Until price reclaims the 50-day SMA, the trend bias remains bearish across all evaluated timeframes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish configuration: the MACD line is below the signal line since mid-June, with the histogram expanding negatively. This indicates accelerating downward momentum. The KDJ oscillator (14,3,3) presents K=18.7, D=22.4, J=11.3 – deep within oversold territory (<20). While extreme oversold conditions suggest potential for a technical bounce, persistent K and D values below 20 warn against premature bullish calls. Both oscillators align in signaling bearish dominance without clear reversal divergence.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the July 7th sell-off. Price plunged to the lower Bollinger Band (~$1,025), reflecting high downward volatility. The band width increased post-breakdown, confirming bearish momentum expansion. Consistent closes below the 20-period moving average (mid-band) reinforce the downtrend. A contraction in band width while holding near current lows would be required to signal potential exhaustion. Current band position suggests oversold but not yet reversing.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis validates bearish conviction. Downward days (notably July 7th: $121.5M and June 27th: $221.6M) consistently occurred on elevated volume, confirming selling pressure. Conversely, recent recovery attempts were accompanied by lighter volume, suggesting weak buying conviction. The high-volume breakdown below $1,050 establishes this level as a significant supply zone. Sustained bearish volume dominance undermines prospects for a swift recovery.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~37) is neutral-to-bearish, declining from the 60-area mid-June but not yet oversold (<30). While its trajectory supports the current downtrend, the absence of oversold conditions implies potential for further downside before a technical bounce becomes probable. Historically, TPL has shown capacity to sustain RSI levels in the mid-30s during extended corrections. An RSI value below 30 would increase tactical rebound likelihood.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing Fib levels from the November 2024 high ($1,730) to the January 2025 low ($980) reveals key technical levels. The 61.8% retracement ($1,184) was violated decisively in May. Subsequently, the 50% level ($1,355) capped the June rally. Current price trades below the 78.6% retracement (~$1,050), which aligns with the breakdown observed on July 7th. Next critical support targets the 100% extension level near $980. This confluence of Fib structure and price action reinforces a bearish technical posture.
Confluence & Divergence
Significant confluence exists near $1,050, combining Fib retracement, psychological support, and the breakdown candle – affirming its role as strong resistance. The next critical support cluster targets $980-$1,000, aligning with the major January low, a key Fibonacci extension, and a psychological barrier. While KDJ is severely oversold, lack of supporting reversal divergence from RSI or MACD suggests caution against early contrarian positioning. Volume, moving averages, and candlestick patterns exhibit high bearish agreement.
Conclusion
Texas Pacific Land exhibits strong bearish momentum across all analyzed technical dimensions. The breakdown below $1,050 support on high volume, coupled with death cross confirmation, descending moving averages, and oscillators trending lower, points to probable further downside towards the $980-$1,000 cluster. While an oversold bounce from current levels ($1,034) is possible, robust resistance near $1,080-$1,100 makes any recovery attempt challenging in the near term. A sustained move above the 50-day SMA would be required to negate the current bearish structure.