Texas Pacific Land Drops 3.5% Amid Bearish Technical Signals And Weak Volume

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) declined 3.49% in the most recent session, closing at $909.48. This bearish movement occurred within a volatile trading range between $909.38 and $934.34, accompanied by below-average volume of 105,615 shares.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks display a bearish bias. The September 3 session formed a long-legged doji with a prominent upper shadow, indicating rejection near $934.34 after an attempt to recover from the prior day’s decline. This pattern aligns with the bearish engulfing candle on September 2, which peaked at $972.74 but closed near $942.32. Key resistance is now established at $972.74, while support emerges near $880–$900, where multiple reaction lows clustered in late August. A decisive break below $880 could signal accelerated selling.
Moving Average Theory
Moving averages reflect sustained downward pressure. The 50-day SMA (≈$975) remains below the 100-day SMA (≈$1,100), and both trend downward beneath the 200-day SMA (≈$1,250), confirming a bearish long-term trajectory. Current price trades ≈7% below the 50-day SMA, highlighting persistent resistance to upward moves. The sequence of shorter averages below longer ones exhibits a "bearish stacking" pattern, consistent with an entrenched downtrend since the May 2025 peak at $1,420.16.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows bearish momentum, with the MACD line (12/26-day EMA differential) below its signal line and descending into negative territory. Concurrently, KDJ oscillators signal non-extreme conditions: %K (36) and %D (41) are retreating from overbought territory but remain above oversold thresholds. This divergence—where MACD accelerates downward while KDJ holds neutral—suggests underlying weakness. However, neither oscillator signals imminent reversal, as the MACD histogram continues to deepen negatively.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident, with bands widening following the breakdown below $935. Price currently hugs the lower Bollinger Band ($905±), typically indicative of oversold conditions. However, the absence of bullish reversal signals amidst band expansion cautions against premature contrarian positioning. The band squeeze in late August resolved downward, reinforcing bearish momentum. Sustained trading below the lower band may signal excessive downside momentum but currently aligns with the broader downtrend.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns lack conviction for a bullish reversal. The September 2 rally to $972.74 occurred on elevated volume (170,555 shares), but subsequent selling saw volume diminish (105,615 shares on September 3), suggesting limited capitulation. Notably, volume spikes have consistently accompanied breakdowns (e.g., August 7: -8.75% on 300,884 shares), while recoveries lack commensurate volume support. This divergence implies weak buyer participation during rebounds, eroding confidence in sustainability of upward retracements.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (≈39) resides in neutral territory, avoiding oversold readings despite recent declines. This disconnect between price action and momentum may reflect residual selling pressure. Historically, RSI divergences have preceded reversals—such as oversold dips below 30 in July and August, which aligned with short-term bounces. Presently, the absence of such divergence, combined with RSI’s failure to breach 55 during late August rallies, reinforces bearish inertia.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the swing from the August 21 low ($873.32) to the September 2 high ($972.74) reveals critical levels. The 50% retracement ($923.03) and 61.8% level ($911.30) were breached decisively on September 3. The close below $911.30 suggests bearish continuation potential toward the 78.6% level ($891.45). This aligns with Bollinger Band and moving average confluences, as the $890–$910 zone now acts as immediate resistance-turned-support for any retracement attempts.
Confluence and Divergence Summary
Confluence of bearish signals dominates: the breakdown below Fibonacci 61.8%, sustained trading below all key moving averages, and MACD deterioration collectively suggest downward continuation risks. Divergences appear between volume and price during rallies (weak participation) and RSI’s neutral stance amid new lows, both warning against contrarian entries. Should price reclaim $935, a reassessment may be warranted, but prevailing technical structure favors bearish trajectories absent catalyst-driven shifts.