Texas Pacific Land Drops 3.33% Amid Bearish Technical Signals

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) declined 3.33% in the latest session to close at $882.15, continuing recent volatility after strong gains earlier in the week. This movement occurs against a backdrop of significant price swings over the past year, ranging from $789.25 to $1,769.14, warranting multi-indicator technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show a bearish engulfing pattern forming on August 14-15, with the August 14 rally (high: $926.31) fully erased by the subsequent 3.33% decline on expanded volume. The $877.84-$912.61 range on the down day suggests consolidation near the $880 psychological support. Resistance is evident near $950-$970 (July-August swing highs), while $850-$865 emerges as critical support from early August congestion and June reaction lows.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approx. $995) crossed below the 100-day MA (approx. $1,080) in late July, confirming bearish momentum. Current price ($882.15) sits significantly below all key moving averages (50/100/200-day), with the 200-day MA near $1,150 acting as a major overhead resistance. This configuration signals entrenched bearish bias across all relevant timeframes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD histogram remains negative territory (-18.2) with signal line divergence, indicating sustained downward pressure. KDJ shows the %K line (27) hovering near %D (30) in oversold territory, potentially foreshadowing near-term consolidation but lacking bullish crossover confirmation. Both oscillators align in signaling weak intermediate momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply during July’s decline from $1,200 to $900, preceding the current volatile phase. Price recently breached the lower band ($860) on August 7 before rebounding, suggesting band integrity holds as dynamic support. The 20-day average at $920 and narrowing bandwidth point to reduced volatility with possible directional resolution ahead.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns stand out, with August 7’s 8.75% decline occurring on the year’s second-highest volume (300,884 shares). Recent rallies (e.g., August 13-14) saw lower volume than preceding sell-offs, undermining bullish conviction. The current pullback aligns with average volume, lacking capitulation signals.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (34.7) approaches oversold territory (<30) but remains above the June low of 28.5. While this divergence may indicate weakening bearish momentum, RSI hasn’t breached oversold levels despite the 35% YTD decline. This warns that oversold conditions remain premature pending sub-30 confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the June high ($1,769) and November 2024 low ($789), key retracement levels highlight $1,279 (38.2%) as major resistance – coinciding with July rejection. Current trading near the $882 level tests the 23.6% retracement ($865), with a breakdown exposing the 0% level ($789). Confluence exists between the 23.6% Fib and early August’s swing low.
Confluence & Divergence
Convergence appears at $850-$865, where Bollinger support, Fib 23.6%, psychological support, and recent swing lows create a high-probability defense zone. Bearish volume confirmation and MA alignment reinforce downside risks. Notable divergence exists in KDJ/RSI nearing oversold readings against unresolved MACD bearishness – suggesting potential consolidation before directional continuation. Given the weight of bearish technical evidence, any breach below $865 may accelerate declines toward $789, whereas recovery above $920 would require bullish volume confirmation to challenge resistance.