Texas Instruments Plunges 2.7%—What's Behind the Sudden Selloff?

Summary
• Texas Instruments (TXN) tumbles 2.7% to $194.41, its worst intraday drop since March 2025.
• Institutional investors like GAMMA Investing and Jennison Associates LLC recently slashed stakes in TXN, signaling shifting risk appetite.
• Analysts at Mizuho and Truist cut price targets, while sector-wide geopolitical tensions over China-US chip dynamics weigh.

Today’s selloff in TXN reflects a confluence of bearish catalysts: institutional profit-taking, analyst downgrades, and sector-wide fears of regulatory headwinds. The stock’s intraday range of $191.38 to $200.08 underscores volatile positioning, with technical indicators and options activity hinting at a potential short-term reversal.

Geopolitical Tensions and Analyst Downgrades Spark TXN Selloff
The sharp decline in TXN stems from a perfect storm of macro and micro factors. On the macro side, U.S. regulatory scrutiny of semiconductor exports to China—exemplified by Trump’s 100% tariff threats and Intel’s equity stake—has rattled investor sentiment. Meanwhile, TXN’s own fundamentals triggered caution: Mizuho cut its price target to $200 from $205, and Truist trimmed its target to $196 from $171. Compounding this, institutional investors including GAMMA Investing (which reduced its stake by 21,778.6%) and Jennison Associates (2,898% stake increase but recent profit-taking) signaled divergent views. The stock’s 30-day K-line pattern—a short-term bearish trend—aligns with this sell-off, as traders react to both near-term profit-taking and long-term sector uncertainty.

Semiconductor Sector Under Pressure as Intel Drags Down TXN
The semiconductor sector (XLK) has been a mixed bag, with Intel (INTC) leading the selloff at -1.38% intraday. TXN’s 2.7% drop outpaces the sector’s average decline, reflecting its exposure to high-margin analog chips vulnerable to regulatory shifts. While Intel’s government-backed equity stake offers a lifeline, TXN’s lack of similar support—coupled with its 35.9x dynamic P/E—makes it a more sensitive barometer for sector risks. The broader S&P 500 Tech sector’s rotation into defensive plays (e.g., utilities) further amplifies TXN’s vulnerability.

Options Playbook: Hedging and Leverage in a Volatile TXN
• MACD: 2.07 (above signal line 1.08), RSI: 67.13 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $180.81–$211.62 (current price near lower band)
• 200D MA: $188.65 (below current price), 30D MA: $193.70 (near support)

Key levels to watch: $193.70 (30D MA), $186.85 (mid-term support), and $207.87 (resistance). Short-term bearish momentum suggests a test of $186.85, but the long-term bullish trend (K-line) implies a potential rebound into $207.87. For leveraged exposure, consider boldTXN20250912P185bold and boldTXN20250912C192.5bold.

TXN20250912P185 (Put, $185 strike, 9/12 expiry):
• IV: 32.34% (moderate), Leverage: 202.48%, Delta: -0.1687 (moderate), Theta: -0.0747 (high decay), Gamma: 0.0242 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 74,445
• This put offers asymmetric upside in a 5% downside scenario (projected payoff: $9.41/share). Ideal for hedging a short-term breakdown below $186.85.

TXN20250912C192.5 (Call, $192.5 strike, 9/12 expiry):
• IV: 25.27% (moderate), Leverage: 45.20%, Delta: 0.6035 (moderate), Theta: -0.3247 (high decay), Gamma: 0.0474 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 45,808
• This call gains 45x leverage if TXN rebounds above $193.70. Projected payoff in a 5% upside scenario: $1.91/share. Aggressive bulls may consider this into a bounce.

If $186.85 breaks, boldTXN20250912P185bold offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider boldTXN20250912C192.5bold into a bounce above $193.70.

Backtest Texas Instruments Stock Performance

TXN at Pivotal Crossroads—Act Now on Key Levels
The selloff in TXN reflects a tug-of-war between short-term bearish momentum and long-term sector resilience. While geopolitical risks and analyst downgrades justify caution, the stock’s 30-day bullish trend and strong free cash flow (30% of EBIT) suggest a potential rebound. Investors should monitor the 200D MA ($188.65) and 30D MA ($193.70) as critical inflection points. With Intel (INTC) down 1.38%, sector-wide pressure remains, but TXN’s robust balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA of 1.2x) offers a margin of safety. Watch for a breakdown below $186.85 or a breakout above $207.87 to dictate next steps.