Texas Instruments Plummets 2.5% as Weak Guidance and Restructuring Spark Sector Jitters

Summary
• Texas Instruments (TXN) slumps 2.5% intraday to $157.34, a sharp reversal from its 52-week high of $221.69.
• Q3 revenue of $4.7B meets expectations, but Q4 guidance of $4.22–$4.58B and EPS of $1.13–$1.39 falls short, triggering sell-offs.
• Further layoffs and wafer line retirements signal operational restructuring amid slowing demand.

Today’s selloff in Texas Instruments reflects a perfect storm of cautious guidance, restructuring costs, and sector-wide uncertainty. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $139.95, investors are recalibrating expectations as the semiconductor industry grapples with macroeconomic headwinds and shifting demand dynamics.

Cautious Guidance and Operational Restructuring Trigger Sharp Sell-Off
Texas Instruments’ 2.5% intraday decline stems from its fourth-quarter revenue and EPS guidance, which fell below analyst expectations. The company cited weaker demand in key markets and announced further layoffs and wafer production line retirements to streamline operations. These moves, while aimed at long-term efficiency, have raised concerns about short-term earnings volatility and underutilized manufacturing capacity. The sell-off accelerated as investors priced in near-term margin pressures and uncertainty around demand recovery in industrial and automotive sectors.

Semiconductor Sector Under Pressure as AMD Trails TXN’s Slide
The semiconductor sector is broadly under pressure, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down 3.99% intraday. While AMD’s decline reflects broader AI and chip demand concerns, Texas Instruments’ drop is more directly tied to its operational restructuring and guidance cut. The sector’s 20.6% year-to-year sales growth in July 2025 (per SIA) contrasts with TXN’s 52-week price drop of 26.74%, highlighting divergent narratives between growth-oriented and cyclical players.

Bearish Setup: Key Levels and High-Leverage Put Options to Capitalize on Volatility
• RSI: 30.03 (oversold)
• MACD: -5.41 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $157.34, near lower band ($155.33)
• 200D MA: $184.51 (price 14.7% below)

The technical setup suggests a continuation of the bearish trend, with critical support at the 200D MA ($184.51) and Bollinger lower band ($155.33). A 5% downside scenario to $149.47 could trigger further selling. Two high-leverage put options stand out:

• TXN20251114P150
- Strike: $150, Expiration: 2025-11-14
- IV: 34.62% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.1607 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0956 (time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0302 (price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 7,048
- Leverage: 225.12%
- Payoff at $149.47: $0.57 per contract
- Why: High leverage and moderate IV make this ideal for a 5% downside.

• TXN20251114P157.5
- Strike: $157.5, Expiration: 2025-11-14
- IV: 33.19% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.4841 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1051 (time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0514 (price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 31,493
- Leverage: 52.01%
- Payoff at $149.47: $8.03 per contract
- Why: High delta and liquidity make this a strong short-term bearish play.

Action: Aggressive bears may consider TXN20251114P157.5 into a breakdown below $157.50, while TXN20251114P150 offers leverage for a deeper pullback.

Backtest Texas Instruments Stock Performance
I attempted to identify every -3 % (or larger) intraday drop directly through the automatic “event-date” tool, but the internal calculation interface returned an error (“code_result not found”). To keep our back-test moving forward, I can switch to a manual (but still systematic) approach:1. Retrieve TXN daily OHLC prices (already done). 2. Treat any day whose LOW price falls ≥ 3 % below the previous session’s CLOSE as an “intraday -3 % plunge” event. 3. Generate the resulting event-date list locally and feed it into the Event Back-test Engine.Please let me know if you’re comfortable with this definition of a “-3 % intraday plunge”. (If you have a different criterion—e.g., based on intraday minute data—please specify and I will adjust.)

Urgent: Watch $155.33 Support and Sector Sentiment for Near-Term Clarity
The selloff in Texas Instruments appears sustainable until the stock retests the 200D MA at $184.51 or finds a floor near the Bollinger lower band at $155.33. Key levels to monitor include $160 (previous close) and $157.50 (strike of high-leverage put). The semiconductor sector’s mixed performance, with AMD down 3.99%, underscores broader macroeconomic risks. Investors should prioritize short-term bearish options like TXN20251114P157.5 if the $155.33 support breaks, while hedging against a potential rebound above $160.