Texas Instruments Plummets 2.5% Amid Tariff Warnings and Earnings Jitters: What’s Next for the Semiconductor Giant?

Summary
• Texas Instruments (TXN) trades at $157.28, down 2.54% intraday, with a range of $156.89 to $160.47
• CEO Haviv Ilan warns of tariff-driven demand shocks and a 'shallow' automotive recovery
• Q3 earnings guidance ($1.48/share) misses LSEG estimates ($1.50/share), sparking sell-off

Today’s selloff in Texas Instruments reflects a perfect storm of macroeconomic headwinds and operational caution. The stock’s sharp decline follows weak earnings guidance, tariff-related demand concerns, and a broader semiconductor sector selloff. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $139.95, investors are scrambling to assess whether this is a buying opportunity or a deeper bearish signal.

Tariff Uncertainty and Earnings Disappointment Weigh on TXN
Texas Instruments’ 13% post-earnings drop on July 23, 2025, has reverberated into today’s session, with the stock trading 2.54% lower at $157.28. CEO Haviv Ilan’s warning about 'tariff aftershocks' and a 'shallow' automotive recovery has amplified investor anxiety. The company’s Q3 guidance of $1.48/share (midpoint) fell short of the $1.50/share consensus, while revenue expectations of $4.63 billion, though slightly above $4.59 billion, failed to offset concerns about underutilized manufacturing capacity. Tariff-driven demand pull-forward in Q2 and lingering geopolitical risks have created a near-term overhang, with the stock now trading 16% below its 52-week high of $221.69.

Semiconductor Sector Suffers as Tariff Fears Linger
The broader semiconductor sector mirrored TXN’s decline, with Analog Devices (ADI) down 3.86% intraday. Trump’s 1:1 chip production tariff policy and China’s anti-dumping probe into U.S. semiconductors have intensified macroeconomic risks. While TXN’s 2.54% drop is steeper than the sector’s average, its exposure to automotive and industrial markets—sectors particularly sensitive to tariff disruptions—has amplified the sell-off. The SIA’s Q3 2025 global semiconductor sales data (up 20.6% YoY) contrasts with TXN’s near-term struggles, highlighting divergent short- and long-term dynamics.

Options and ETF Strategies for Navigating TXN’s Volatility
• RSI: 30.03 (oversold)
• MACD: -5.41 (bearish), Signal Line: -4.93
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $155.33 (current price near support)
• 200D MA: $184.51 (price 15.3% below)

Key levels to watch: The 30D support at $161.38 and 200D support at $178.89. With RSI in oversold territory and price near the Bollinger lower band, a short-term rebound is possible, but the 200D MA remains a critical resistance. The bearish MACD histogram (-0.48) and low turnover (0.35% of float) suggest continued pressure. No leveraged ETF data is available, but the sector’s sensitivity to tariffs and Trump’s policies remains a wildcard.

Top Options Picks
1. TXN20251114P150
• Put Option, Strike: $150, Expiry: 2025-11-14
• IV: 36.18% (moderate), Leverage: 213.36%, Delta: -0.1617 (moderate), Theta: -0.1016 (high decay), Gamma: 0.02896 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 1,265 (high liquidity)
• Payoff (5% downside to $149.42): $9.42/share. This contract offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for a 5% drop scenario.
2. TXN20251114P157.5
• Put Option, Strike: $157.5, Expiry: 2025-11-14
• IV: 31.84% (moderate), Leverage: 57.21%, Delta: -0.4679 (high), Theta: -0.1009 (high decay), Gamma: 0.0534 (very high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 32,321 (very high liquidity)
• Payoff (5% downside to $149.42): $8.08/share. This contract’s high delta and gamma make it responsive to price swings, with strong liquidity for entry/exit.

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bears should prioritize TXN20251114P157.5 for its high gamma and liquidity. If the stock breaks below $155.33 (lower Bollinger band), consider TXN20251114P150 for deeper downside potential. A rebound above $161.38 (30D support) could trigger a short-term bounce, but the 200D MA at $184.51 remains a distant target.

Backtest Texas Instruments Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-backtest dashboard that summarises the performance of Texas Instruments (TXN.O) after every intraday draw-down of −3 % or worse from 3 Jan 2022 to 7 Nov 2025. Key observations and a brief interpretation follow the module.Key take-aways• Frequency: 633 qualifying plunges (~1 of every 2 trading days), indicating frequent 3 % high-to-low moves in TXN. • Average path: Price typically stabilises quickly; cumulative excess return vs. buy-and-hold turns positive after day 10 and peaks ~1.4 % around day 23 before fading. • Win-rate: Stays near 50 % in the first week, rising to ~55 % by day 17, then slipping back to ~50 % by day 30. • Statistical edge: Returns from day 10 to day 29 are “significantly positive”, but the magnitude (~1–1.4 %) is modest. Practical implication: A short-term mean-reversion strategy that buys TXN at the close of −3 % intraday-plunge days and holds ~10–20 trading days captures a small but statistically significant edge, though transaction costs need consideration given the high event frequency.

TXN at Pivotal Crossroads: Watch for Breakdown Below $155.33
Texas Instruments’ near-term trajectory hinges on two critical factors: the pace of tariff-related demand normalization and the company’s ability to execute its manufacturing restructuring. The stock’s 2.54% drop today has brought it closer to its 52-week low, but technical indicators suggest oversold conditions may offer a tactical entry point for long-term investors. Sector leader Analog Devices (ADI) is down 3.86%, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability to macroeconomic shifts. Act now: Monitor the $155.33 (Bollinger lower band) and $161.38 (30D support) levels. A breakdown below $155.33 could trigger a test of the 52-week low, while a rebound above $161.38 may signal a short-term bottom.