Texas Instruments Outlook - Technical Weakness and Divergent Analyst Calls

Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Texas Instruments (TXN) is under pressure technically and recently fell by 9.82%, with diverging analyst calls and mixed fundamentals. Overall stance: Cautious.

News Highlights

Recent headlines highlight the evolving landscape in the semiconductor sector. Notably:

• McKinsey report on tariffs: The firm's analysis on U.S. tariffs and their impact on chip supply chains points to ongoing regulatory uncertainty, which could affect players like Texas Instruments.
• Japan-U.S. cooperation proposals: New talks of joint initiatives in rare earths and semiconductors could reshape the sector's global dynamics, though the timing and benefits for TXN remain unclear.
• SOXX ETF outflow: The U.S. Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) experienced a $750 million outflow in May 2025, suggesting reduced investor appetite for the broader sector, which could weigh on TXN.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average analyst rating: The simple average analyst rating is 3.33, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.34, reflecting a mix of bearish and bullish outlooks. There is clear divergence in analyst sentiment, with ratings ranging from "Strong Buy" to "Sell".

This dispersion doesn’t align well with the current 9.82% price drop, indicating mixed signals. For example:

• Benchmark (Cody Acree): "Strong Buy" with a 60% historical win rate.
• Morgan Stanley (Joseph Moore): "Sell" with a 0% historical win rate.
• B of A (Vivek Arya): "Neutral" with a 50% historical win rate.

Key fundamentals and their scores:

• EV/EBIT: 136.78, with an internal diagnostic score of 2.36—suggesting a relatively high valuation.
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate %): 5.14%, with an internal diagnostic score of 9.81—positive for cash flow generation.
• Accounts receivable turnover ratio: 4.66, with a 9.78 internal score—indicating efficient receivables management.
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth rate %): 10.81%, with a 8.43 score—modest but positive profit growth.
• Basic earnings per share (YoY growth rate %): 11.07%, 7.70 internal score—suggests decent EPS performance.

Money-Flow Trends

The latest fund-flow data shows a mixed picture. While small retail inflows are at 49.47%, and large and extra-large institutional inflows are even stronger (57.25% and 61.01%, respectively), the Small and Medium trends are negative.

This suggests that while big-money players are accumulating, retail and mid-sized investors are hesitant, likely reflecting uncertainty due to recent price weakness and mixed analyst outlooks.

The fund-flow score is 7.8 (internal diagnostic score), which is good—a positive sign, but not enough to override the technical and price trends.

Key Technical Signals

Texas Instruments' technical outlook is weak, with 2 bearish indicators and 0 bullish signals over the last 5 days. The technical score is 3.57 (internal diagnostic score), reinforcing caution.

Key signals and scores:

• WR Oversold: 2.64 internal score—suggests weak momentum despite an "oversold" signal.
• Bearish Engulfing: 1.15 internal score—a clear bearish signal with poor historical performance.
• RSI Oversold: 6.91 internal score—more neutral, suggesting limited reversal potential.

Recent chart patterns:

• 2025-09-10: WR Oversold, Bearish Engulfing, RSI Oversold — strong bearish cluster.
• 2025-09-12: WR Oversold, RSI Oversold — continued bearish pressure.

Key insight: The technical indicators suggest the market is volatile and lacking a clear direction, with 2 bearish vs 0 bullish signals. This supports an overall avoid stance.

Conclusion

Texas Instruments is in a difficult position—technically weak, with mixed analyst ratings and diverging institutional and retail flows. While big-money investors are showing interest, the bearish chart signals and price drop suggest caution.

Actionable takeaway: Consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer technical signal before entering a long position. Monitor the next earnings report and regulatory updates on tariffs for potential catalysts.