Texas Instruments Outlook - A Mixed Picture Amid Strong Fundamentals and Weak Technicals

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Texas Instruments (TXN) is down sharply by -9.78% recently, with mixed analyst ratings and a strong fundamental score of 3.8, but weak technical signals suggest caution.

2. News Highlights

Recent developments in the semiconductor sector are shaping the landscape for Texas Instruments:

• McKinsey on tariffs and chip supply chains: A recent analysis from McKinsey explores how shifting U.S. tariff policies might impact semiconductor supply chains. This is a key issue for TI, which relies on global manufacturing and trade.
• Japan-U.S. cooperation on rare earths and semiconductors: Japan announced plans to propose deeper collaboration with the U.S. on rare earths and chip manufacturing, which could benefit TI in the long run by stabilizing supply chains and reducing dependency on China.
• $750M outflow from SOXX ETF: The U.S. Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) saw a significant net outflow in May 2025, suggesting investor caution in the sector. This could pressure TI’s stock in the near term.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst landscape for Texas Instruments is mixed, with two major institutions offering contrasting views:

• B of A Securities (Analyst: Vivek Arya) has issued a Neutral rating over the last 20 days. With a historical win rate of 50.0% and an average return of 2.17%, this is a cautious signal.
• Benchmark (Analyst: Cody Acree) has a Strong Buy rating, reflecting a more bullish stance. With a 60.0% historical win rate and 4.42% average return, this is the higher conviction call.

The simple average rating score for TI is 4.00, while the weighted rating score, which accounts for analyst performance, is 3.51. These scores are relatively close but show dispersion in expectations, suggesting uncertainty among analysts.

Notably, these ratings clash with the recent price trend (down -9.78%), which is negative but fundamentals remain strong. Key fundamental factors include:

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate %): 5.14% (internal diagnostic score: 1)
• EV/EBIT: 136.78 (score: 2)
• Gross profit margin (GPM): 57.89% (score: 3)
• Cash flow from operating activities (CFOA): $0.053 (score: 4)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth rate %): 10.81% (score: 4)
• Accounts receivable turnover ratio: 4.66 (score: 4)
• Interest coverage ratio (EBIT / Interest expense %): 11.55% (score: 3)
• Total assets turnover ratio: 24.18% (score: 3)
• Income tax / Total profit %: 10.17% (score: 2)
• Cash-MV: -0.34 (score: 2)

Overall, while technical indicators signal caution, the fundamental picture is robust and suggests long-term stability for Texas Instruments.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors are showing a positive trend, with extra-large and block funds both seeing inflows. The overall inflow ratio is 54.30%, indicating net buying pressure from institutional and large-cap capital.

However, the retail segment is weaker, with small and medium investors showing a negative trend. This suggests that while big money is accumulating, retail sentiment remains bearish, possibly amplifying short-term volatility.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technically, Texas Instruments is in a weak state based on internal diagnostic scores (0-10). Here are the key indicators:

• RSI Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 1 — indicating a strong bearish bias
• MACD Death Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 1 — another bearish signal
• Bearish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score: 1.15 — a clear sell signal
• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 2.48 — neutral but trending downward
• RSI Oversold: Internal diagnostic score: 8.14 — one of the few bullish signals, suggesting potential for a bounce

Recent chart patterns include a MACD Death Cross on September 4 and a RSI Oversold signal on September 5, which could be early signs of a potential reversal. However, the overall trend remains bearish, with 4 bearish indicators vs. 1 bullish, advising investors to avoid taking new long positions at this time.

6. Conclusion

Actionable takeaway: Consider waiting for a pull-back before entering long positions in Texas Instruments. While the fundamentals remain strong and the overall inflow ratio is positive, the technical outlook is weak, with several bearish signals in play. Investors should monitor the RSI Oversold condition for potential short-term bounce opportunities and watch for a resolution of the MACD Death Cross before considering any new long entries.