Texas Instruments Outlook - A Bearish Technical Picture Amid Mixed Analyst Views

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Texas Instruments (TXN) has seen a sharp price decline of -10.17% recently, with weak technical indicators and mixed analyst sentiment casting uncertainty on its near-term outlook.

2. News Highlights

Recent headlines in the semiconductor sector point to shifting dynamics:

• McKinsey’s report on US tariffs highlights uncertainty for chipmakers, especially as trade rulings linger in legal limbo. This could weigh on Texas Instruments' supply chain strategy and margins.
• Japan's proposed cooperation with the US in rare earths and semiconductor production could offer longer-term tailwinds for global chipmakers like TXN, but the immediate impact remains limited.
• US Semiconductors ETF SOXX saw a $750M outflow in May 2025, indicating broad market rotation away from the sector. This suggests investors may be cautious about semiconductors in general, including large players like Texas Instruments.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are split: one "Strong Buy" from Benchmark and a "Neutral" from B of A Securities. The simple average rating is 4.00, while the historical performance-weighted average is 3.51, showing a slight bearish tilt when adjusting for past accuracy. This mixed outlook doesn't align with the stock’s falling price trend, which has dropped 10.17% in recent weeks.

Key Fundamental Factors

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY): 5.14% — internal diagnostic score: 8.14
• EV/EBIT: 136.78 — internal diagnostic score: 2.80
• Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 57.89% — internal diagnostic score: 2.48
• Accounts receivable turnover ratio: 4.66 — internal diagnostic score: 2.80
• Total profit YoY growth: 8.43% — internal diagnostic score: 6.69
• GMAR (Gross Margin to Assets Ratio): 57.89% — internal diagnostic score: 2.80
• Interest coverage ratio: 11.55 — internal diagnostic score: 2.42
• Cash flow from operations (CFOA): 5.32% — internal diagnostic score: 3.83
• Total assets turnover ratio: 24.18% — internal diagnostic score: 2.60
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY): 10.81% — internal diagnostic score: 2.69

While operating cash flow and net profit growth are relatively strong, metrics like EV/EBIT and GPM are dragging the fundamentals lower. The internal diagnostic score for fundamentals is 4.95, indicating a mixed but cautiously optimistic long-term picture.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big-money players are showing more confidence than retail investors. The overall inflow ratio is 54.53%, with large and extra-large capital inflows at 48.12% and 58.41%, respectively. This suggests institutional buying activity is positive. However, small and medium investors are more cautious, with inflow ratios at 49.60% and 49.56%, respectively.

The fund flow score is 7.63 (on a 0-10 scale), marking it as "good" based on our internal diagnostic criteria. This suggests that while the overall market is mixed, institutional activity is bullish and may provide some near-term support.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technically, the outlook is weak with bearish indicators dominating:

• Bearish Engulfing: internal diagnostic score: 1.15 — a bearish reversal pattern
• MACD Death Cross: internal diagnostic score: 1.00 — signals a downtrend
• RSI Overbought: internal diagnostic score: 1.00 — indicates potential pullback
• RSI Oversold: internal diagnostic score: 8.14 — rare bullish signal

Recent patterns from the recent_indicators_by_date show consistent bearish pressure:

• 2025-08-28: Bearish Engulfing
• 2025-09-05: RSI Oversold
• 2025-09-04: MACD Death Cross
• 2025-09-08: WR Oversold and Bearish Engulfing

With 5 out of 6 indicators bearish and only 1 bullish, the key technical insight is clear: the trend is weak and suggests caution or even avoidance. The overall technical score is 2.76 — a weak signal.

6. Conclusion

Actionable Takeaway: Texas Instruments is facing a challenging technical environment with a mix of bearish indicators and a recent price drop of -10.17%. While fundamentals remain reasonably strong and institutional flows are positive, the near-term chart is a red flag. Investors should consider waiting for a clearer breakout or stronger reversal signals before committing capital. With an internal technical score of 2.76, the market appears to be in a weak state and should be approached with caution.