Tether/Zloty Market Overview (USDTPLN)

• Price traded in a tight range for most of the day before rallying near the close.
• RSI indicated slight overbought conditions late in the session.
• Volume remained moderate, with no significant divergences observed.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near the 3.656 level.
• Price closed above the key 3.66 support level, indicating short-term strength.

The Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) pair opened at 3.661 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.676 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, trading between 3.637 and 3.677 during the period. The total volume for the 24-hour window was 352,691.0 units, while the notional turnover stood at approximately 1,260,724.6 PLN. The price action showed a definitive short-term reversal and consolidation ahead of a late-day breakout.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data revealed a key support level forming around 3.656, where a bullish engulfing pattern was identified following a brief sell-off. This was followed by a sharp rebound into overbought territory. A potential resistance cluster emerged around 3.675–3.677, where price consolidated before a final rally. A doji formed near 3.643, signaling indecision, and was followed by a continuation of the upward trend. These formations suggest a potential continuation of bullish momentum if the 3.677 level holds.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, reflecting a relatively neutral-to-bullish bias. The 20-period MA was above the 50-period MA, reinforcing a potential continuation of the recent upward trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is positioned above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a positive bias for the near term. The current price appears to be above both the 20 and 50-period MAs on the shorter timeframe, which may support the case for a continuation of the bullish move.

MACD & RSI

The RSI showed a late-day rise into overbought territory (above 70), signaling potential exhaustion in the upward move. However, the momentum remained intact, suggesting a possible continuation or a pullback within a tighter range. The MACD crossed above the signal line in the final hours of the 24-hour period, confirming the bullish bias. The positive divergence between the MACD and price during the early part of the session was resolved, indicating that the upward trend is still in force.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart indicated a moderate expansion during the final hours, suggesting increased volatility as the price approached key resistance. The price closed near the upper band, which may signal a potential correction or consolidation phase. The bands were relatively narrow earlier in the session, indicating a period of low volatility. The current positioning of the price within the bands suggests a potential for a short-term retest of the upper channel.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively steady throughout the session, with a noticeable increase in the final four hours, particularly during the 14:30–15:45 ET timeframe. This increase in volume accompanied the breakout above 3.675 and supported the move higher. Turnover also increased during this period, aligning with the volume and confirming the strength of the upward move. No significant price–volume divergences were observed, suggesting strong buying interest during the final phase of the 24-hour window.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing from 3.637 to 3.677, the 61.8% level aligns with 3.663 and was tested multiple times. A potential target for the next leg of the move could be the 3.690 level, which is a reasonable extension of the current rally. The daily Fibonacci levels suggest a 38.2% retracement at 3.668 and a 61.8% at 3.654—both levels are now in proximity to the current price, indicating a possible pause or consolidation ahead of a further move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish engulfing pattern and the confirmation by the MACD and RSI, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position on a close above the 3.675 resistance level, with a stop loss placed below the 3.656 support. A take profit could be set at the 3.690 Fibonacci extension level. This setup would allow traders to capitalize on the continuation of the bullish momentum while managing risk with a defined stop. The increased volume and alignment with key Fibonacci levels further justify the strategy's viability over the next 24 hours.