Tether’s USDT Mints Surge 100% During Bitcoin’s 59% Price Spike
2min read Over the past decade, the issuance of Tether’s USDT has closely mirrored Bitcoin’s price cycles, with significant mints often occurring during bull runs and burns following market corrections. This relationship is evident in data from Whale Alert, which plots Tether’s net minting and burning alongside Bitcoin’s price movements from 2015 to early 2025. The data underscores how USDT’s issuance patterns align with Bitcoin’s price cycles, although the exact nature of this relationship remains a topic of debate.
Large issuances of USDT frequently coincide with Bitcoin price spikes. For instance, in late 2020 and throughout 2024, net new USDT issuance climbed into the tens of billions as Bitcoin’s price accelerated upward. A notable example is the period from October 25, 2024, to December 16, 2024, when Bitcoin surged from $66,700 to over $106,000. This rally was accompanied by several large USDT mints, including a $1-billion issuance at the end of October and a $6-billion mint at the end of November. Additional mints of $6 billion and $9 billion in November further fueled Bitcoin’s ascent to nearly $100,000 by November 22.
However, the timing of these mints suggests that while they may serve as near-term signals of rising demand, they are not pure leading indicators. In many cases, the largest mints occurred during or after price momentum was already underway. For example, the $6-billion mint on November 6, 2024, came after Bitcoin had already rebounded from $65,000 to $75,000. Similarly, more than $15 billion in USDT was minted between November 18 and 23, 2024, amid rapid upward price action.
Conversely, periods of sustained USDT burns, when USDT is removed from circulation, often occur during or shortly after market corrections. This pattern was visible in the weeks following Bitcoin’s December 2024 peak above $106,000. As Bitcoin declined through January and into March 2025, several significant USDT burns were recorded. For instance, a major USDT burn of $3.67 billion occurred just after Bitcoin dropped from around $106,000 to $95,713 on December 26, 2024. Another burn of $2 billion followed as Bitcoin continued to decline toward the $92,000 level on December 30, 2024. These burns tend to confirm downward price movements rather than precede them, making them useful for tracking post-peak behavior and assessing market cooling.
Despite the historical correlation between USDT supply changes and Bitcoin price movements, experts agree that there is no concrete evidence suggesting that USDT issuance directly influences Bitcoin’s price. The relationship between USDT and Bitcoin is complex and influenced by various factors, including regulatory changes and competition from other stablecoins. The Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework, for example, places new compliance requirements on stablecoin issuers operating within the European Union, which could reshape how stablecoins interact with crypto markets. In the US, proposed legislation could also impact how centralized stablecoins like USDT are issued, backed, and redeemed.
Competition from rivals like usdc, which has a strong compliance posture, is also intensifying. USDC lost a significant portion of its market cap in 2022 and 2023 following the Silicon Valley Bank debacle but has since recovered to an all-time high market capitalization of over $60 billion. Decentralized stablecoins such as Dai are also gaining traction among users who prioritize censorship resistance and onchain transparency. As the stablecoin landscape evolves, Tether’s influence on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains significant, but the reliability of USDT mints and burns as indicators of capital flow will depend on how regulatory forces, user preferences, and infrastructure developments shape the future of stablecoins.
