Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) Market Overview: October 5, 2025

• Price opened at 42.22 and closed at 42.02, showing a bearish trend with 15-minute intervals.
• Key support identified near 42.04–42.05 and resistance near 42.12–42.14.
• Volume surged during early morning, coinciding with a sharp price drop.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, with potential for consolidation or a bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show price within the lower band, indicating low volatility.

Price Behavior and Volume Overview

The Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) pair opened at 42.22 on October 4, 2025 (12:00 ET − 1), and closed at 42.02 on October 5, 2025 (12:00 ET). The 24-hour trading range spanned from a high of 42.25 to a low of 42.01. Total volume across the 96 15-minute candles summed to 66,373. Total notional turnover was approximately 2,774,000 Hryvnia. Price action showed a bearish bias with a strong decline during early trading hours, followed by consolidation in the lower range.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

Price encountered resistance in the 42.12–42.14 range and support near 42.04–42.05 during the 24-hour window. Notable bearish patterns included a large bearish engulfing candle at 02:30–02:45 and a hanging man near 10:15–10:30, both signaling potential reversals from higher levels. A series of small-bodied candles in the morning suggested indecision and fading bullish momentum.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Using 15-minute 20/50 SMA crossovers, the 50 SMA crossed below the 20 SMA, reinforcing the bearish bias. Daily 50/100/200 SMA indicators are not provided, but the 15-minute chart suggests continuation of the downtrend. RSI hovered in oversold territory for most of the day, dipping below 30, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. MACD showed bearish momentum with a negative histogram, though divergence was observed between price and RSI in the morning hours, hinting at possible exhaustion.

Volatility, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci

Bollinger Bands indicated a contraction in volatility during the early morning, followed by an expansion as the price fell toward the lower band. The 42.04 level aligned with both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the morning high (42.25) and key support. Price remained below the 20-period Bollinger Band, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the morning sell-off, confirming the bearish momentum, while turnover also increased in tandem. A divergence between volume and price was noted in the early afternoon, when volume declined despite a small rebound, suggesting weak follow-through.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests a mean-reversion approach using 15-minute RSI divergence and Fibonacci levels to identify potential bounce points. Given the observed RSI divergence and the price aligning with 61.8% Fibonacci support at 42.04–42.05, the strategy would trigger a long signal if RSI rises above 35 and volume increases. This aligns with the candlestick structure and Bollinger Band dynamics observed in the 24-hour period, offering a testable approach for short-term traders in the Tether/Hryvnia market.