Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) Market Overview

• Price fluctuated within a 15-minute range of 43.43–43.58, ending near 43.44 after a midday dip.
• Volume spiked at 2145–2200 UTC, coinciding with a 1.4% price drop to 43.46.
• RSI remained neutral, suggesting limited momentum but no overbought/oversold extremes.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction late morning, hinting at low volatility.
• No strong reversal patterns formed, but bearish pressure increased after 23:00 UTC.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 43.53 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of 43.58 before closing at 43.44 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was 43.43. Total volume traded amounted to 36,364.0 units, with a turnover of approximately 1,561,531 UAH.

The structure of the 15-minute candles highlights a tight trading range from 43.48 to 43.58 for much of the session. A bearish trend emerged after 21:45 UTC with a sharp drop to 43.46, forming a long upper shadow and a small bearish close. The price did not retest that low in the following hours, suggesting initial support at 43.44–43.46 may hold in the near term. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 21:45 UTC, signaling a potential continuation of downward pressure.

Moving averages at the 15-minute scale (20/50) indicate a bearish bias, with the 20-period line below the 50-period. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 lines are closely aligned near 43.50, suggesting a period of consolidation or indecision. If the 43.44 level is broken, the next support could be at 43.37, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing high.

MACD & RSI

MACD on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover just before the price drop at 21:45 UTC, while RSI remained within a mid-range of 50–55 throughout the session, showing no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests that while there was a clear bearish move in price, the broader market lacked strong momentum, and traders may be waiting for a clearer breakout direction. Bollinger Bands contracted between 00:00 and 04:00 UTC, indicating low volatility before expanding as price action picked up again later in the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

To develop a practical backtest strategy for USDTUAH, a clear definition of the stock universe and the resistance-based exit rule is needed. Given the unique nature of this pair, it could be treated as a standalone asset in the universe. A common and practical resistance-based exit rule could be to close the position on the first 15-minute close exceeding the highest high recorded over the prior 10 trading sessions. Alternatively, a time-based rule of 20 candles (5 hours) could be applied to limit exposure. Confirming these parameters would allow the development of a robust hypothesis for evaluating entry and exit signals in future sessions.