Tether/Hryvnia Market Overview for 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price consolidated near 43.70, with minor bullish attempts after 19:15 ET.
• Volume spiked to 4,028 units at the peak of the day, confirming key price action.
• RSI and MACD indicated neutral momentum with no clear overbought or oversold signals.

The Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) pair traded within a tight range around the 43.70 level on November 12, 2025. The session opened at 43.69 and reached a high of 43.89 before consolidating around 43.72 at the 12:00 ET close. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 22,990 units, with a notional turnover (amount) of 90 UAH. The price action revealed a lack of directional bias, with key swings forming within Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci retracements offering limited confirmation for breakouts.

Structure & Formations

Price found support at 43.68–43.69 and tested resistance at 43.72–43.73 repeatedly during the session. A key bullish candle formed between 19:15–19:30 ET, where the price surged from 43.68 to 43.74, indicating potential buying pressure. However, this failed to translate into a breakout as price consolidated back to 43.72–43.73. No major candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing, doji) were observed, suggesting indecision among market participants.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs remained closely aligned near 43.70, with price bouncing off the 20SMA support area multiple times. The daily chart would have shown the 50/100/200-day SMAs in a more static state due to the short-term nature of the pair. The alignment of these moving averages suggests a continuation of the tight range unless a breakout occurs above 43.75 or below 43.67.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained near the zero line, with the histogram fluctuating between neutral and slightly bullish bars during the late ET hours. The RSI hovered around the 50 level, indicating neutral momentum. While there were minor dips below 50 and brief excursions above 55, no clear overbought or oversold readings were observed, suggesting a continuation of consolidation could be expected.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the Bollinger Band envelope for the majority of the session, with the 43.68 level acting as a temporary floor and the 43.73–43.74 range functioning as a ceiling. A narrow band width in the early hours indicated low volatility, which expanded slightly during the peak trading hours. Price action near the upper and lower bands did not confirm breakouts, indicating that traders should expect further consolidation unless a strong move is triggered.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to a high of 4,028 units during the 19:15–19:30 ET candle, confirming the price surge from 43.68 to 43.74. However, subsequent candles failed to maintain the same level of volume, which could indicate a potential reversal if the trend continues. Notional turnover was moderate, with most candles showing consistent volume levels. No clear divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting that the current consolidation is supported by balanced buying and selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were calculated from the 43.68–43.89 swing. The 38.2% retracement level was at 43.76, which acted as a minor resistance during the 20:15–20:30 ET candle. The 61.8% level at 43.73 was tested multiple times but not decisively broken. These levels remain important for near-term directional bias, with a breakout above 43.75 potentially indicating a short-term bullish move, while a drop below 43.67 would signal bearish follow-through.

Backtest Hypothesis

In a recent attempt to backtest the performance of the Bullish Harami pattern on the ticker symbol "BLSH.N," we encountered an issue where the data source returned an empty result. This suggests either an incorrect symbol or a lack of coverage for the security in the data provider's system. Before proceeding with any backtesting, it is critical to confirm: 1) the exact ticker symbol intended for analysis, 2) whether the study should focus on that single asset or expand to a broader universe, and 3) the preferred benchmark for performance comparisons (e.g., "HOLD.P" or "SPY"). Once confirmed, we can retrieve the candlestick data, identify relevant patterns, and run a 1-day holding period backtest from 2022 to today. This approach would help quantify the pattern’s predictive power and overall profitability in real market conditions.