Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) Market Overview – 24-Hour Technical Summary

Summary
• Price action consolidates near resistance at 3777.0 with a 6.8% range from 3733.0 to 3778.0.
• Volume peaks during the afternoon ET with 16,575 units traded at 3763.0.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions late into the day with momentum slowing.
• Price consolidation in Bollinger Bands suggests a potential breakout ahead.
• No strong bearish divergence between price and volume observed.

USDTCOP traded a 24-hour range of 3733.0 to 3778.0, opening at 3734.0 (12:00 ET − 1) and closing at 3774.0 (12:00 ET). The total volume was 353,176.0 with a notional turnover approximating $1,336,000,000, based on average price levels. A moderate uptrend emerged through the afternoon, followed by consolidation into the night.

Price structure during the session showed a bullish continuation pattern with a late 15-minute candle high at 3778.0 forming a potential resistance zone. Key support levels include 3755.0 and 3740.0, while resistance appears concentrated at 3777.0–3778.0. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:00 ET as price moved from 3763.0 to 3772.0, indicating strong buying pressure. A doji near the session high at 3777.0 may signal indecision.

A 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart rose from 3740.0 to 3773.0, supporting the upward bias, while the 50-period line followed closely. On the daily timeframe, 50/100/200-period EMAs are not available, but the 15-minute trend suggests a continuation above the 20-period line is likely.

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The MACD crossed into positive territory mid-session, with a bullish divergence forming near the 19:00 ET peak. The RSI approached overbought levels late into the session, peaking at ~74, indicating a risk of near-term exhaustion. Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility, with price sitting near the upper band for much of the session, suggesting a period of consolidation before a potential breakout.

Volume remained elevated during the afternoon session, with a peak of 16,575 at 19:00 ET, coinciding with a bullish reversal pattern. Notional turnover followed volume closely, showing no material divergence. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 17:00–19:00 ET rally suggest key levels at 3764.0 (38.2%) and 3753.0 (61.8%), which may serve as potential support should price retest.

Looking ahead, USDTCOP may attempt a breakout above 3777.0, but a retest of 3763.0–3764.0 is expected. Traders should watch for a breakdown in momentum or a rejection at key resistance as potential reversal signals. Position holders may consider tightening stops near 3755.0 to manage risk in case of a pullback.

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Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when RSI exceeds a standard overbought threshold (e.g., 70 on a 14-day period), paired with bullish candlestick patterns and a rising 20-period EMA. A 5% stop-loss would be applied to limit downside risk. While today’s data did not see RSI reach 70, it came close to 74, suggesting a potential entry point if confirmed by volume and pattern. A follow-up exit could include closing the position once RSI falls below 60 or when the price breaks below the 20-period EMA. This strategy aligns with the observed momentum and structure in USDTCOP, offering a rules-based approach to capitalize on short-term overbought conditions in a stable fiat-pegged pairing.

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