Tether/Brazilian Real Market Overview (2025-11-01)

• Price dipped from a high of 5.3915 to a low of 5.375, ending at 5.3818
• High volatility seen between 19:00 and 20:30 ET, with a range of 0.017
• Volume surged to 2.6M at 19:00 ET, but momentum failed to sustain the move
• RSI bottomed near 29, indicating oversold conditions for part of the session
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction early in the day, followed by a breakout

Tether/Brazilian Real (USDTBRL) opened at 5.3915 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 5.3945 before settling at 5.3818 as of 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 5.375 and 5.3945 over the past 24 hours. Total volume was 47.4 million units, with notional turnover exceeding 250 million BRL.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart displayed a bearish bias in the early hours, with a sharp drop in the 19:00–19:30 ET hour. A low of 5.375 marked a key support level. A series of bearish engulfing patterns followed, while in the latter half of the session, a consolidation phase began with a doji at 5.3865, suggesting indecision among traders. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 19:00–20:15 ET move aligned with 5.382–5.383, a level that held through the end of the session. 5.380 also served as a minor support, tested and held multiple times.

Resistance levels

Key resistance was identified around 5.386–5.388, where price stalled multiple times before rolling back. 5.3915, the opening level, acted as a psychological ceiling.

Support levels

The 5.380–5.381 area proved resilient, particularly after the 20:00 ET low. A breakdown below 5.375 could signal deeper bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bearish, with the 5.380–5.381 range sitting just above the 20SMA. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period in the late hours, confirming a short-term downtrend. On a daily chart, the 50/100/200-day SMAs are expected to provide a longer-term context, but with this 24-hour slice, the 5.383–5.384 level appears as a possible convergence zone.

Short-term bias

The 15-minute chart suggests a bearish bias, with price below both key moving averages and a potential test of the 5.380–5.381 support zone expected in the coming hours.

Momentum & Indicators

The RSI bottomed at ~29 during the 19:30–20:00 ET hour, suggesting oversold conditions at that point, though price failed to follow through on a rebound. MACD remained bearish throughout the session, with the histogram showing a narrowing divergence at the end, indicating weakening bear momentum. The 9-period line crossed above the signal line at the close, hinting at a potential near-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 19:00–20:30 ET period, with price bouncing off the lower band and settling mid-band by the final hour. The prior contraction in the early morning suggested a buildup of potential energy, which was released in the late evening.

Volume Profile

Volumes spiked to ~2.6M at 19:00 ET but failed to confirm a sustained bearish move. The total 24-hour volume of 47.4M was concentrated in the late evening, with lower participation in the morning. Turnover matched the volume closely, indicating no significant slippage or liquidity issues.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci level at 5.382 (61.8% of the 19:00–20:15 ET move) held through the session. A 5.380 level (38.2%) may act as a secondary support if price retreats further. On the daily chart, retracement levels from recent highs would need longer time data to be fully accurate.

Backtest Hypothesis

Due to the inability to automatically retrieve a verified USDTBRL price series, the backtest for Doji-Star patterns could not proceed. However, from the current dataset, multiple dojis were observed near 5.3865 and 5.3855. A potential backtest strategy could involve identifying these patterns and assessing the subsequent 24-hour price response. For instance, a doji forming near a key moving average or support level could signal a reversal or consolidation phase. To proceed, the correct price symbol (e.g., USDBRL=X or an exchange-specific ticker) or a manually provided Doji-Star list would be required.