Tether/Argentine Peso Market Overview

• Price fell sharply from ~1,467 to ~1,394 on heavy volume.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum with oversold readings.
• Volatility expanded early in the session before tightening near closing levels.
• Bollinger Bands showed price action near lower band for much of the day.
• Final 15-minute candle closed at ~1,386, signaling possible consolidation.

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1,465.8 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, dropped to a low of 1,375.2, and closed at 1,386 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. Total volume reached 3,376,444, while notional turnover hit ~$4.88 billion over the 24-hour window. The session was marked by a prolonged bearish drift, with key resistance at 1,460 and support at 1,445.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a long bearish real body, indicating strong selling pressure. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the top of the session (1,465–1,460), followed by a bearish trendline break below 1,445. A potential support zone formed between 1,445 and 1,440, with a doji at 1,445.6 near the middle of the session suggesting indecision. A key support zone at 1,420–1,410 was tested and rejected, with the price falling further to 1,390. The final consolidation at ~1,385 suggests a possible short-term bottoming process, though it remains unconfirmed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have diverged sharply lower, with price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages appear to have crossed bearishly, confirming a stronger downtrend. The 200-period moving average is a distant resistance level at ~1,500 and not currently relevant to near-term price action.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover and remained negative for most of the session, with the histogram deep in bearish territory. RSI reached oversold territory at ~30–32 in the final hours but failed to produce a strong rebound, suggesting exhausted bullish sentiment. A reading below 30 without a rebound typically signals continued bearish bias unless confirmed by price action. Momentum has clearly shifted to the downside over the past 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the initial drop, with price dropping below the lower band as volatility increased. The bands have since tightened, with price consolidating near the lower boundary in the final hours. This tightening may indicate a potential reversal setup, but given the strength of the bearish move, it could also signal a continuation of the trend into the next session. A break above the upper band would indicate a rare bullish reversal, but this remains unlikely given current conditions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early phase of the downtrend, particularly between 16:00 and 18:00 ET, with a 15-minute bar showing 168,630 units traded at a high of 1,467.9. Turnover spiked as price dropped below 1,445. A divergence between falling price and declining volume in the latter half of the session suggests weakening selling pressure. However, price has not yet responded with a meaningful bounce. A follow-through in volume during a rebound could confirm short-term stability.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 1,467.9 high and the 1,375.2 low, key levels include 38.2% (~1,434.5), 50% (~1,421.6), and 61.8% (~1,408.6). Price appears to have found temporary support at the 50% and 61.8% levels before breaking below the 1,390 psychological barrier. A potential short-term rebound could target the 61.8% level (~1,409) for confirmation before testing the 50% level (~1,421) next.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a long-bias entry on a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., a hammer or bullish engulfing) forming near key Fibonacci levels such as 38.2% or 50%. The strategy would enter on confirmation of a close above the upper Bollinger Band or a bullish MACD crossover with RSI above 35. A stop-loss could be placed below the recent 1,375.2 low, with a take-profit target at the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This strategy is best used in conjunction with high volume and increasing turnover to confirm the reversal.