Tether's $350B Flow: Valuation, Wealth, and Regulatory Pressure

Tether's secondary market valuation has hit a range of $350 billion to $375 billion. This figure, derived from recent private transactions, contrasts sharply with the company's on-chain supply, which contracted by 0.8% to $183.61 billion last month. The divergence highlights a key dynamic: the market is pricing in the company's immense profit engine, not just its circulating token.

That engine is powered by massive scale. Tether generated roughly $10 billion in profit last year, largely from yield on its vast reserves. This implied annual revenue provides the fundamental basis for the high valuation, even as the underlying asset's supply shrinks. The setup is one of concentrated wealth creation versus a cooling market.

The price action here is a classic tension between a company's hidden value and its visible liquidity. A $350B+ valuation would make its CFO, Giancarlo Devasini, worth over $156B. Yet the simultaneous 0.8% monthly contraction in USDT supply signals a drain of crypto market fuel, creating a volatile backdrop for that valuation.

Wealth Flow and Executive Stakes

The $350 billion to $375 billion valuation translates directly into a flow of wealth to Tether's executives. CFO Giancarlo Devasini, who holds around 44–45% of Tether, would see his net worth exceed $156 billion at the higher end of that range. That figure surpasses Warren Buffett's current net worth.

At the lower end of the recent secondary market estimates, a $200 billion valuation still implies a staggering $89 billion net worth for Devasini. This illustrates the extreme sensitivity of executive wealth to the company's market price.

This capital concentration is separate from Tether's broader venture portfolio. The company holds stakes in over 120 companies valued above $10 billion, representing another massive flow of capital and potential future returns.

Regulatory Catalyst and Market Context

The regulatory landscape is shifting, with a direct threat to Tether's core yield strategy. The OCC has proposed a rule implementing the GENIUS Act, which prohibits payment stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yield on their tokens. This is a fundamental challenge to the profit engine that supports its $350B+ valuation.

The rule includes a strict presumption to catch workarounds. If a stablecoin issuer contracts with an affiliate to pay yield to that affiliate, which then pays it to holders, the OCC will treat that as a violation. This closes a major loophole and signals that the agency is prepared to enforce the ban rigorously.

This regulatory headwind arrives as market conditions are already strained. Tether is facing a second consecutive monthly contraction, with its supply shrinking 0.8% last month. At the same time, USDC's growth has stalled. This simultaneous stall across the two largest stablecoins indicates a broader market recovery is fragile, with capital outflows creating a challenging backdrop for any issuer reliant on yield to attract users.