Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Rebound Potential: Key Strikes, Subscription Risks, and $450 Call Opportunities

• Tesla’s stock plunges 2.35% to $436.69, trading near 200D support at $425.55
• Options market shows 0.815 put/call open interest ratio, favoring bullish bets
• Block trades reveal whales selling $430 puts and buying $460 calls ahead of Q2

Here’s the takeaway: Tesla’s oversold technicals and heavy call open interest suggest a short-term rebound is likely, but the subscription model shift and Nvidia’s AI advances mean you need to play this carefully. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Pressure vs. Bearish Floor: What Options Reveal

The options market is split but leaning bullish. For this Friday’s expirations, TSLA20260116C450 and TSLA20260116C470 calls have 33,814 and 31,321 open interest—showing retail and institutional players are pricing in a rebound above $450. Meanwhile, puts like TSLA20260116P170 (58,219 OI) and TSLA20260116P250 (42,435 OI) indicate floor-huggers are bracing for a drop below $250. The key? Call open interest is concentrated near current price levels, while puts skew much lower—meaning the market expects a bounce, not a crash.

Block trades add intrigue. A 900-lot sale of TSLA20260220P430 puts ($19M turnover) suggests big players are hedging against a near-term dip. Conversely, a 200-lot buy of TSLA20260515C460 calls ($860K turnover) shows long-term bullishness—these whales think Tesla will reclaim $460 by May.

News Flow: Subscription Model Creates Winners and Losers

Tesla’s shift to FSD subscriptions is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it creates recurring revenue—a win for Musk’s 10M subscription goal. On the other, it removes $8K in upfront cash, which could hurt Q1 cash flow. The market’s 2.35% drop on Wednesday reflects fears that regulators or customers might resist the change.

Meanwhile, Nvidia’s CES announcement is a direct threat to Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions. If investors lose faith in Cybercab’s timeline, the stock could retest lower Bollinger Bands ($420.75). But here’s the twist: options data shows minimal betting on a $420 move, meaning the market isn’t pricing in a worst-case scenario—yet.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Bounces, Puts for Protection

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy TSLA20260123C450 ($7535 OI) or TSLA20260123C460 ($6778 OI) if price holds above $434.23 (intraday low). Target $461.34 (middle Bollinger Band) with a stop below $430.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy TSLA20260123P250 ($11,345 OI) if price breaks below 30D support ($446.22). This protects against a $250-level collapse.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $434.23 if RSI (30) holds—aim for 30D MA at $456.15.
• Stop-loss at $425.55 (200D support) to avoid a breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Bearish Risks

Tesla’s technicals scream for a rebound—RSI is oversold, MACD is diverging, and Bollinger Bands are primed for a bounce. But the news flow introduces real risks: NHTSA investigations and Nvidia’s AI dominance could derail a rally. The path forward? Use options to play the bounce while hedging with puts. If Tesla cracks below $425.55, the bear case gains momentum. But if it holds, the 0.815 put/call ratio suggests a short-covering rally is coming.

Bottom line: This is a high-reward, high-risk setup. Play it smart—let the options market do the heavy lifting while you stay nimble.