Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Target $470 Calls as FSD Hype Fuels Breakout Potential

• TSLA trades at $444.9, down 0.06% but clinging to a long-term bullish trend
• Options market shows 22,008 open interest at the $490 call strike—highest of any OTM contract
• Analysts like Piper Sandler boost price targets to $500 as FSD progress accelerates
• Put/call ratio at 0.85 suggests aggressive bullish positioning despite Michael Burry’s bearish warnings

Here’s the thing: TSLA’s options activity and technicals are painting a clear picture—investors are pricing in a sharp rally above $470. The stock’s 71 RSI and surging MACD (4.49) confirm momentum traders are piling in, while the options market shows heavy call buying at strikes far above current levels. This isn’t just noise—it’s a setup.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in OTM Calls, Block Trades Hint at Institutional Moves

Let’s start with the options chain. This Friday’s $490 call (TSLA20251212C490) has 22,008 open interest—the highest of any strike. That’s not random. It means traders are betting TSLA will break through $470 (current 30D resistance) and keep climbing. The next Friday $470 call (TSLA20251219C470) isn’t far behind with 42,301 OI, suggesting positioning for a multi-week rally.

But here’s the twist: those massive call positions come with risk. If TSLA stumbles below its 200D MA ($343.67) or the lower Bollinger Band ($383.88), the put-heavy block at $430 (10,885 OI) could trigger a selloff. And don’t ignore those block trades—12,000 calls at $380 (TSLA20250919C380) and 1,250 puts at $395 (TSLA20250919P395) show big players were active weeks ago. They’re likely still holding, which adds liquidity but also means a sudden unwind could shake the stock.

FSD Hype Validates Options Bets, But Burry’s Bear Case Can’t Be Ignored

The news flow? It’s all FSD. Elon Musk’s robotaxi timeline and Piper Sandler’s 9,200-mile disengagement metric are fueling the bullish bets. Morgan Stanley’s cautious upgrade to $425 and Burry’s $145 bear case create a wide range—but the options market is clearly siding with the optimists. Retail traders love the FSD narrative, and institutional money is following. That’s why TSLA’s 1.5% rebound Tuesday outperformed the broader market.

But here’s the catch: FSD’s commercial success isn’t guaranteed. Regulatory delays or technical hiccups could trigger a selloff. The puts at $400 (13,315 OI) and $225 (23,923 OI) suggest some hedging, but the 0.85 put/call ratio shows most are still all-in on the upside.

Trade Ideas: Ride the Call Wave or Hedge with Puts

For options traders, the $470 call (TSLA20251219C470) is a no-brainer if TSLA breaks above $446.35 (Tuesday’s high). Entry near $4.50/contract (based on current IV) could target $8–$10 as the stock hits $470. For the stock itself, consider entries near $429.73 (30D support) with a stop below $423.57 (middle Bollinger Band). A breakout above $450.20 (intraday high) would validate the bullish case, with targets at $470 and $490.

Bearish players might eye the $430 put (TSLA20251219P430) as insurance, but with RSI at 71 and MACD surging, I’d lean bullish unless TSLA cracks $423.57.

Volatility on the Horizon: Ride the FSD Wave or Hedge the Risks

TSLA’s story is a classic “disruption play”—the FSD rollout could be a game-changer, but the path isn’t smooth. The options market is pricing in a $490+ move, but Burry’s bear case reminds us valuations are stretched. For now, the technicals and sentiment align for a rally. If you’re in, ride the $470 calls. If you’re cautious, keep a small put position. Either way, this is a stock that won’t stay quiet for long.