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Here’s the takeaway: TSLA shows upside bias. Options data and technicals align with a bullish near-term bias, but valuation concerns linger. Let’s break it down.
Bullish Calls Dominate, But Puts Tell a Different StoryTSLA’s options chain is a chessboard of bets. This Friday’s top call open interest piles up at $450 (28,299 contracts), $460 (27,444), and $480 (15,345). That’s heavy money hedging or speculating on a push above $450. The puts, meanwhile, are a bear trap—$140 (40,262 OI) and $220 (32,556) strikes look like panic stops from years ago.
But here’s the twist: Block trades like TSLA20250919C380 (1,200 contracts at $380) and TSLA20250919P395 (1,250 puts) hint at institutional positioning. These older expiries might signal a “buy the rumor, sell the news” playbook. The risk? If Optimus delays hit, those deep puts could ignite a selloff.
News Flow: Optimus Hype vs. Burry’s Bear CaseThe Optimus robot buzz is real. A potential 2026 White House executive order to fund robotics could turbocharge TSLA’s AI ambitions. But Michael Burry’s bearish take—calling
“ridiculously overvalued”—adds friction. The stock trades at 294x earnings and 16x sales, way above peers.Investor sentiment is split. Retail traders are betting on Musk’s moonshot, while value investors see a stretched multiple. The key question: Will policy tailwinds offset slowing auto margins? For now, options buyers seem to think the former will win.
Actionable Trades: Calls for the Brave, Puts for the PragmaticFor options traders, the (this Friday’s $450 call) and (next Friday’s $460 call) are prime candidates. If TSLA breaks above $454 (intraday high), these strikes could see explosive gains.
For stock traders, consider entries near $431 (30D support) with a target at $454 (intraday high). A breakdown below $429 would trigger a reevaluation.
Volatility on the Horizon: Navigating TSLA’s Polarized MarketTSLA is a stock caught between two worlds: a tech stock’s moonshot dreams and an automaker’s profit pressures. The options market leans bullish, but Burry’s bear case can’t be ignored.
Your move? If you’re bullish, use the $450–$460 calls to capitalize on near-term momentum. If you’re cautious, buy the put (8,960 OI) to hedge against a surprise selloff. Either way, TSLA’s next move will test whether Optimus hype can justify its sky-high valuation.

Focus on daily option trades

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