Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Dec 12–19 Expirations

• Tesla’s Q4 earnings beat and $100B+ 2026 revenue guidance fuel short-term optimism.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $470–$490 strikes, with a put/call ratio of 0.85 signaling bullish bias.
• Block trades in deep-out-of-the-money calls (e.g., TSLA20251212C470) hint at institutional positioning for a potential breakout.

Here’s the core insight: Tesla’s options market is pricing in a strong upside bias, with technical indicators and recent news aligning to support a bullish case. While risks like production delays and regulatory scrutiny linger, the data suggests a high probability of a near-term rally. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Sentiment in Options and Block Trades

The options chain tells a clear story. For this Friday’s expiration (Dec 12), the top call options by open interest are clustered between $470 and $490 (OI: 21,433 to 22,008), while puts below $430 have far less liquidity. This imbalance—combined with a put/call ratio of 0.85—shows investors are betting on a rebound above $450.

But here’s the kicker: block trades in TSLA20251212C470 and TSLA20251219C450 (next Friday’s expiry) suggest big players are locking in leverage for a potential push toward $480. These strikes align with Tesla’s 30-day support/resistance zone (429.73–431.28) and its 200-day moving average ($343.67), making them strategic targets for a breakout.

News-Driven Narrative: Optimism vs. Caution

Tesla’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The Q4 earnings beat and $100B+ 2026 revenue guidance are tailwinds, as are the Cybertruck upgrades and $5B battery contract. But the Shanghai production delays and FSD regulatory probe add near-term headwinds.

The key here is market perception: investors are prioritizing long-term growth (Cybertruck, AI, B2B expansion) over short-term hiccups. The $1.5B buyback program also signals management’s confidence in undervaluation. That said, the 7% drop after the Shanghai news shows the stock remains sensitive to execution risks.

Actionable Trade Setups

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• TSLA20251212C470 (this Friday’s expiry): Buy this call if Tesla closes above $448 today. The strike sits just below the intraday high ($450.20) and offers leverage if the stock retests $450–$455 tomorrow.
• TSLA20251219C450 (next Friday’s expiry): A safer play for a gradual rally. Buy this if Tesla holds above $440, with a target of $460–$465 by Dec 19.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $443.61 (intraday low) if support holds. Target $455–$460, with a stop-loss below $435.
• Alternatively, scale in at $445–$447 if the stock consolidates. The 30-day moving average ($432.85) acts as a critical floor.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s options market is pricing in a 12–15% move by Dec 19, driven by earnings optimism and product momentum. While the risks (production delays, FSD scrutiny) can’t be ignored, the data leans decisively bullish. The key is timing: if Tesla closes above $448 today, the $470–$490 calls become high-conviction plays. But if it dips below $435, the put-heavy OI at $430 and lower could trigger a short-term selloff.

Bottom line: This is a stock with momentum and catalysts—but also volatility. Position yourself with options for leverage, and keep a close eye on the $445–$447 pivot zone. The next 72 hours could define Tesla’s near-term trajectory.