Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid Oversold Conditions: Key Strikes and Strategies for Jan 23 Expiry

• TSLA trades at $438.81, up 0.06% with RSI at 28.54 (oversold territory)
• Put/Call OI ratio at 0.82 suggests bullish bias, with $500 calls dominating next Friday’s chain
• Block trades show whales selling $450 and $470 calls ahead of Jan 23 expiry

Here’s the big picture: Tesla’s options market is quietly building a case for a rebound. With technicals pointing to oversold conditions and heavy call open interest at key strikes, the stock could snap back from its recent earnings-driven selloff. But the path isn’t without risks—let’s break it down.What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market is a tug-of-war between cautious optimism and defensive positioning. For Friday’s expiry, the top OTM call at $500 has 46,844 open contracts—nearly double the nearest competitor at $450. This suggests a lot of traders are betting on a rebound above $450, which aligns with Tesla’s 30-day support/resistance range (438.43–439.60).

But here’s the twist: the put/call ratio for open interest (0.82) tells us calls are still dominant. The top OTM puts ($170, $250) have lower open interest than the $500 calls, which means the market isn’t pricing in a catastrophic drop. That’s a good sign for bulls.

Block trades add another layer. On Jan 23, large players are selling $450 calls (TSLA20260123C450) and $470 calls (TSLA20260123C470) in volumes of 2,000 contracts each. This could indicate institutional players are locking in premium or hedging against a rally. For retail traders, it’s a signal: if the stock breaks above $450, those block trades might create short-term resistance.

How Tesla’s News Fits Into the Bigger Picture

Tesla’s Q4 delivery miss (418k vs. 422k estimate) and the shift to subscription-based FSD pricing have spooked investors. But the market’s reaction has been overdone. The RSI at 28.54 suggests the stock is trading below its 20-day average (456.97), which could mean a retest of the $450 level is in the cards.

The NHTSA delay in the FSD probe isn’t a new risk—it’s already priced in. What matters now is whether Tesla’s earnings on Jan 28 can surprise to the upside. If the energy business (growing at 46.7 GWh for 2025) offsets automotive weakness, the stock could regain momentum. The options market seems to agree: the $500 call OI suggests a 10% move is being priced in by some traders.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLAFor Options Traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy the TSLA20260123C450 call (strike $450, expiry Jan 23). With the stock near $438.81, a break above $450 could trigger a rally toward the 30-day moving average at $456.76. Target: $465 (7% gain on the call).
• Bearish Hedge: Buy the TSLA20260123P250 put (strike $250) for downside protection. While extreme, the $250 put has 11,345 OI and could act as a floor if sentiment deteriorates.

For Stock Traders:

• Entry Strategy: Consider buying TSLA near $438.50 if it holds above the 200-day moving average ($428.21). A close above $447.25 (today’s high) would validate the short-term bullish case.
• Stop-Loss: Place a stop below $435.26 (intraday low) to protect against a breakdown.
• Target Zones: First resistance at $450, then $456.97 (middle Bollinger Band).

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s options market is setting up for a binary event-driven trade. If earnings on Jan 28 beat expectations—especially in energy or FSD subscription adoption—the stock could surge toward $470. But if margins disappoint, the $425–$430 support zone (200-day range) will be critical. Either way, the next 12 days will define the near-term trend. For now, the data leans bullish—but don’t ignore the puts at $250. In a volatile name like TSLA, anything can happen.