Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to $450+ Upside Potential

• TSLA trades at $445.9 (+2.3% intraday) amid a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish setup.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $450–$500 and puts at $430–$250, with a put/call ratio of 0.815 (bullish skew).
• Block trades reveal $2.5M poured into the TSLA20260109C442.5 call and $1.1M into the TSLA20260116C457.5 call—betting on near-term momentum.
• Cybercab production news and FSD optimism drive stock gains, but competition from BYD and Nvidia adds near-term risks.

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options market is pricing in a bullish bias, with heavy call buying at key strikes and block trades amplifying near-term upside potential. While technicals show a short-term pullback, the long-term trend and strategic options positioning suggest a push above $450 could reignite momentum. Let’s break it down.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market is a mixed bag of caution and aggression. For Friday’s expiring contracts, call open interest peaks at $450 ($26,625 OI) and $460 ($15,461 OI), while puts dominate at $430 ($20,656 OI) and $250 ($28,734 OI). This suggests two camps: traders hedging near-term support at $430 and those betting on a rebound to $460+.

The next Friday’s chain tells a clearer story. TSLA20260116C457.5 ($24,722 OI) and TSLA20260116C450 ($34,029 OI) are hotspots, with block trades like the $1.1M buy of the 457.5 call amplifying conviction. Meanwhile, the TSLA20260109C442.5—bought in a $2.5M block today—hints at a short-term target just above current levels.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $430 strike ($20,656 OI) is a critical support level. If TSLA dips below $430.39 (intraday low), that could trigger a test of the 200D MA at $363.96—a high-risk scenario for bulls.

News Flow: Optimism vs. Reality Checks

Tesla’s recent 1.74% rally tracks with the Cybercab production timeline and FSD hype. Analysts like Dan Ives have raised price targets to $600–$800, betting on robotaxi revenue by 2030. But the news isn’t all sunshine: 2025 sales missed Chinese rivals, and Nvidia’s open-source AI is enabling competitors to catch up.

This creates a two-tier narrative. Retail investors are chasing the AI/driverless dream, while institutional players are hedging against execution risks. The stock’s 314 P/E ratio hinges on delivering on these promises—something the options market is already pricing in.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLAFor Options Traders:

• TSLA20260109C442.5 (today’s expiring call): Buy if TSLA breaks $449.05 (intraday high). Target $455–$460 before Friday close.
• TSLA20260116C457.5 (next Friday’s call): Buy if the stock holds above $435.94 (today’s open). Target $465+ by Jan 16.
• TSLA20260109P430 (put hedge): Buy if the stock dips below $435.94. Protect against a drop to $429.26 (30D support).

For Stock Traders:

• Entry near $430.39 if the stock tests intraday lows. Target $453.98 (30D MA) as a first goal, then $462.14 (Bollinger middle band).
• Exit above $449.05 with a stop-loss at $430.39. If TSLA closes above $449, consider adding to the long position.

Volatility on the Horizon

TSLA’s path forward hinges on executing its AI and robotaxi roadmap. The next two weeks will test whether the $450–$460 level can hold as a pivot point. If the stock clears $449 and holds above $435.94, the long-term bullish trend could reignite. But a breakdown below $430 would force a reevaluation of the 200D MA as a floor.

For now, the options market and technicals align on a bullish bias with defined risks. Keep an eye on the TSLA20260320C450 block trade—$2.5M in March calls suggests big players are positioning for a multi-month rally. The question isn’t whether TSLA can go higher—it’s whether the fundamentals can justify it.