Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Jan 16, 2026

• TSLA trades at $441.84, up 0.75% from open, with RSI at 28.54 (oversold territory)
• Call open interest outpaces puts (4.1M vs 3.4M), with heavy call OI at $450–$500 strikes
• Block trades show large sell orders on $450 and $470 calls expiring Jan 23

Here’s what’s happening: TSLA’s options market is whispering bullish optimism while technicals hint at a potential rebound. The stock is testing 30D support at $438.43 but sits below its 200D MA ($368.28), creating a tug-of-war between short-term bears and long-term bulls. Let’s break it down.

Where Institutional Money Is Flowing: Calls at $450, Puts at $250

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For Friday’s expiration, the $450 call (TSLA20260116C450) has 46,844 open contracts—nearly double the next strike. But here’s the twist: block trades show 2,000 $450 calls (TSLA20260123C450) and 2,000 $470 calls sold this week. That’s not just noise—it’s a bearish signal. Big players are hedging against a short-term pullback.

Yet the put/call ratio (0.816) still favors calls. The $250 put (TSLA20260116P250) leads puts with 42,424 open contracts, suggesting some fear of a deeper correction. But with Bollinger Bands showing the price near the lower band ($417.38), a rebound to the middle band ($456.97) feels inevitable if support holds.

News vs. Options: Regulatory Risks vs. AI Hype

Tesla’s Q4 delivery miss and NHTSA’s FSD probe are dragging sentiment, but the options market isn’t pricing in catastrophe. The $133.94B 2026 revenue forecast and robotaxi ambitions keep long-term bulls invested. Here’s the catch: the stock’s 38.6% 6-month gain clashes with its 10.8% underperformance vs. the Nasdaq. That tension shows up in the options—high call OI at $500+ strikes reflects belief in Musk’s moonshot vision, while puts at $250+ act as a safety net for near-term volatility.

Trade Setups: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For options traders: Buy-to-open the TSLA20260123C450 if the price breaks above today’s high of $447.25. Target $460–$470 for a 10–15% move. Alternatively, the TSLA20260123P250 offers downside protection if the stock dips below $438.43 support. For stock buyers, consider entries near $438.43 with a stop-loss below $430.92 (200D support) and a target at $456.97 (middle Bollinger Band).

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for TSLA’s Next Move

The coming weeks will test TSLA’s resolve. A strong Jan 28 earnings report could ignite the $500+ calls, while regulatory delays might trigger the $250 puts. Either way, the 30D RSI at 28.54 suggests a rebound is overdue. Keep an eye on the TSLA20260123C470—if that strike sees a surge, it’ll signal big money is betting on a post-earnings pop. Stay nimble: this stock’s story isn’t over yet.