Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid $490 Call OI Surge—Here’s How to Play the Breakout

• TSLA trades at $438.6, down 3.6% from $455.0, testing 30D support at $429.73.
• Options data shows 29,730 open interest at the $490 call (this Friday’s expiry)—the highest of any strike.
• Put/call open interest ratio at 0.85 suggests bullish positioning, but RSI near 77 warns of overbought conditions.

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options market is leaning hard into a bullish narrative, but today’s sharp pullback creates a tactical entry point for those ready to capitalize on a potential rebound. Let’s break down why this setup matters—and how to play it.

Bullish OI Clusters and Block Trade Signals

The options chain tells a story of conviction. For this Friday’s expiry (Dec 12), the $490 call leads with 29,730 open interest, followed by $470 (16,765) and $500 (16,330). These strikes act like invisible magnets—massive call buying suggests institutional players are pricing in a sharp rebound before the holiday season.

But it’s not all one-sided. The put side has 43,885 open interest at the $160 strike (yes, $160)—a deep-out-of-the-money put that’s more about hedging extreme downside than near-term bearishness. The put/call ratio of 0.85 (calls > puts) reinforces the bullish tilt, though the RSI at 77 warns of a potential near-term correction.

Block trades add intrigue. A 1,200-lot call block at TSLA20250919C380 (expiring Sept 19) and a 500-lot call at TSLA20250919C400 hint at long-term positioning. Meanwhile, a 1,250-lot put block at TSLA20250919P395 suggests some hedging activity. These trades don’t scream “immediate move,” but they do signal patience—key for a stock with a long-term bullish bias.

News Flow: Optimism vs. Caution in a Tightrope Balance

Morgan Stanley’s upgraded $425 target (from $410) and Melius’ “must own” rating highlight Tesla’s AI and robotaxi potential. But the same analysts downgraded TSLA to “Equal-weight,” citing overvaluation and near-term execution risks. Mizuho’s $475 target cut (from $485) adds caution, pointing to subsidy cuts in 2026 that could pressure margins.

Here’s the rub: The market is pricing in long-term optimism but hedging near-term uncertainty. That’s why you see heavy call buying at $490+ (betting on a rebound) alongside block trades that lock in long-term exposure. Retail traders should watch how the stock reacts to $429.73 support—if it holds, the news-driven narrative could tilt back to bullish.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for the Breakout, Stock for the ReboundFor options traders: The TSLA20251212C470 call (this Friday’s expiry) is a high-conviction play. With 16,765 open interest, it’s a strike where the market expects a rebound. If TSLA closes above $449.74 (today’s intraday high), this call could see explosive gains. For a longer-term bet, the TSLA20251219C500 (next Friday’s expiry) offers leverage if the stock breaks above $450.For stock traders: A precise entry near $429.73 (30D support) could work if the price holds. Set a stop-loss below $423.07 (middle Bollinger Band) and aim for a first target at $449.74 (intraday high), with a stretch target at $462.16 (upper Bollinger Band). The 200D moving average at $315.53 is a distant floor, but the immediate focus is on retesting key support.Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for the Next Move

TSLA’s technicals and options data align on one thing: The stock is in a bullish trend, but it’s not without risk. The RSI near overbought levels and today’s 3.6% drop suggest a pullback is possible. However, the heavy call open interest at $490+ implies the market expects a rebound before the end of the year.

If you’re bullish, the next 48 hours will test whether $429.73 holds. If it does, the path to $450+ becomes more plausible. If not, the 200D moving average at $315.53 looms as a distant but critical support level. Either way, the options market is pricing in a story of resilience—and that’s a signal worth watching.