Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Bias at $480–$500 Calls Amid Delivery Woes—Here’s How to Play the Rebound

• TSLA trades at $447.42, down 0.5% from its $457.78 open after a volatile session.

• Call open interest peaks at $480 and $500 strikes for Friday expiration, while puts dominate at $250 and $190.

• Block trades hint at hedging activity, with a $410 put sold for June 2026 and $410 puts bought for January 2026.

The stock is caught in a tug-of-war: short-term bearish momentum clashes with long-term bullish structure. But here’s the kicker—options data and block trades suggest smart money is positioning for a rebound, not a collapse. Let’s break it down.Bullish Calls at $480–$500 vs. Bearish Puts at $250: What’s the Play?

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For Friday expiration, TSLA20260102C480 and TSLA20260102C500 have 31,295 and 21,000 open interest, respectively. That’s heavy call buying at strikes 8–11% above the current price. Meanwhile, puts like TSLA20260102P250 (23,829 OI) and TSLA20260102P190 (42,603 OI) show fear of a deeper selloff.

But here’s the twist: the put/call ratio for open interest is 0.81, slightly bearish but not extreme. That means the market isn’t pricing in a catastrophic drop—yet. The block trade TSLA20260618P410 (200 contracts sold) suggests some players are short-term bearish, but the TSLA20260116P410 block (400 puts bought) hints at hedging ahead of earnings on Jan 28.

News Flow: Deliveries Drop, But Musk’s AI Hype Keeps Bulls Alive

Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries fell 16% to 418k units, losing its crown to BYD. The expired EV tax credit and weak European sales are real issues. But here’s the catch: investors aren’t panicking. The stock rose 1.9% premarket despite the miss, fueled by Musk’s $1B share buy and robotaxi hype.

The block trades align with this duality. Short-term puts (like TSLA20260116P410) suggest hedging against near-term volatility, while the June 2026 put sale (TSLA20260618P410) implies confidence in a longer-term rebound. The market is betting Musk’s AI bets will offset delivery woes.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Safety

1. Bullish Call Play: Buy TSLA20260102C480 if TSLA breaks above $458.22 (Bollinger upper band). Target: $480 strike if the stock closes above $470.
2. Bearish Put Spread: Buy TSLA20260109P440 and sell TSLA20260109P430 for next Friday. Profit if TSLA dips to $431.18 (lower Bollinger band) but holds above $425.56 (200D support).
3. Stock Entry: Buy TSLA near $431.18 (lower Bollinger) with a stop at $425.56. Target: $464.70 (middle Bollinger) if the 30D MA ($447.96) holds.

Volatility on the Horizon: Earnings and Robotaxi Could Be Game-Changers

TSLA’s Q4 earnings on Jan 28 will test the stock’s resolve. If the AI/robotaxi roadmap impresses, the $480–$500 calls could ignite. But watch the $425.56–$430.92 support zone: a break below that could trigger a test of the $400 level, where TSLA20260109P400 (9,675 OI) has some buyers waiting.

Bottom line: This is a high-risk, high-reward setup. The options market is pricing in a rebound, but the stock’s path depends on Musk’s ability to turn AI hype into reality. Stay nimble, and don’t let a single trade define your strategy.