Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal $470 Bull Call Play as FSD Hype and Block Trades Heat Up

• TSLA trades at $443.77, down 1.7% from $451.45 after a volatile open at $448.83
• Options data shows 23,677 open calls at $470 strike (this Friday’s expiry) vs. 43,887 puts at $160—hinting at a bullish bias
• Block trades of 1,200 calls at $380 and 1,250 puts at $395 (expiring Sept 19) suggest institutional positioning

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options market is leaning hard into a $470+ breakout, backed by FSD progress, a bullish RSI (72.4), and heavy call open interest. But watch the $424.16 Bollinger Band middle line—it’s a critical support level.

Bull Call Heatmap: Why $470–$500 Strikes Are the New Battleground

Let’s break down the options chaos. This Friday’s expiry has TSLA20251212C470 (23,677 open interest) and TSLA20251212C500 (19,367 OI) as top calls. That’s not random—it’s a vote of confidence. Meanwhile, puts at $160–$260 (43,887 OI) are more about hedging extreme downside risks. The put/call ratio of 0.846 (calls > puts) confirms the bias.

But don’t ignore the block trades. A 1,200-lot call trade at $380 (TSLA20250919C380) and a 1,250-lot put at $395 (TSLA20250919P395) suggest big players are pre-positioning for a Q4 move. These expiries are months old, so they’re likely long-term bets on FSD monetization.

FSD Hype vs. Wall Street Skepticism: Which Wins?

Piper Sandler’s $500 target and Musk’s robotaxi timeline are fueling optimism. But Morgan Stanley’s $425 downgrade is a reality check. The stock’s 15% three-week rally has pushed RSI into overbought territory (72.4), so a pullback to $429.73 (30D support) isn’t out of the question. The key? FSD v14.1.x’s 20x disengagement improvement—if real-world testing mirrors lab results, bulls get a win.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Brave, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options:

• TSLA20251212C470 (this Friday): Pay $1.25/contract for a $470.25 strike. If TSLA closes above $470, you’re in profit. Risk? A close below $440.33 (intraday low) would trigger panic.
• TSLA20251219C500 (next Friday): Buy $500 calls at $2.50/contract. Target a $470 entry if the stock dips, then hold for a $500+ pop.

For stock:

• Entry near $429.73 (30D support). Stop-loss at $424.16 (Bollinger Band middle line). Target $470 first, then $490 if FSD news stays hot.
• Bear hedge: Buy TSLA20251219P430 (12,508 OI) at $1.50/contract. Protects against a drop below $420.

Volatility on the Horizon: Bullish Trends Ahead?

The next 72 hours will test TSLA’s resolve. A close above $460 would validate the $500 bulls, while a breakdown below $424.16 could trigger a 10% correction. Either way, the options market is pricing in a $470+ future. Stay nimble—this stock doesn’t sleep.