Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal $450 Call Contingency as Put Open Interest Surges: Bullish Breakout or Bearish Trap?

• Tesla’s stock surges 2.42% to $433.66, driven by Wedbush’s $600 price target and AI advancements.
• Options data reveals a 0.85 put/call open interest imbalance, with heavy call OI at $450–$500 and bearish put OI at $140–$210.
• Block trades totaling $8.7M signal strategic positioning in $380–$410 strikes, hinting at institutional bullishness.

The confluence of Tesla’s technicals, options positioning, and news flow paints a high-conviction bullish setup—but with embedded risks. With RSI at 73.41 (overbought) and MACD (26.34) above its signal line, the stock is primed for a continuation of its short-term rally. However, the surge in put open interest at deep OTM strikes and recent lawsuits could create volatility. Traders must weigh the AI-driven optimism against regulatory and operational headwinds.

Bullish Call Contingency: OTM Options and Whale Trades Signal $450–$500 Inflection

The options chain reveals a stark imbalance: call open interest dominates at $450–$500 strikes (OI: 31,434–20,496), while puts cluster at $140–$210 (OI: 43,956–27,539). This suggests institutional players are hedging against a sharp decline but remain net bullish on a $450+ move. The put/call ratio of 0.85 (calls > puts) reinforces this, indicating a market more prepared for upside than downside.

Notable block trades amplify this narrative. The $3.8M TSLA20250919C380 call and $1.9M TSLA20250919P395 put suggest strategic positioning for a mid-September catalyst. These trades imply a "buy the dip" strategy if Tesla dips to $380–$395, with a target above $450. However, the $51M robot injury lawsuit and CFO’s $918K stock sale introduce uncertainty, potentially triggering a pullback to the 30D support at $344.65.

News-Driven Narrative: AI Optimism vs. Regulatory and Legal Risks

Wedbush’s $600 target and Samsung’s $16.5B AI chip deal validate Tesla’s AI-driven valuation thesis. Deutsche Bank’s Q3 delivery forecasts and the IRS’s EV tax credit easing further bolster bullish sentiment. Yet, the $243M Autopilot crash ruling and UK market share decline counterbalance this optimism. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Wedbush remain bullish, but the class-action lawsuit and NHTSA scrutiny highlight regulatory risks that could pressure the stock if unresolved.

Investor perception is split: AI and robotaxi advancements attract speculative buyers, while legal liabilities and market share erosion deter long-term holders. The key will be whether Tesla’s AI progress outpaces its operational risks—a dynamic that could widen the options positioning gap.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for $450–$470, Stock Entry at $423.39

For options traders, the TSLA240920C450 (expiring Friday) and TSLA240927C470 (next Friday) offer high-conviction setups. The $450 call aligns with the 30D moving average (367.59) and Bollinger Band midpoint (383.26), while the $470 call targets the 200D MA (334.22) breakout. Both benefit from Tesla’s RSI divergence and Wedbush’s $600 thesis.

Stock traders should consider entry near $423.39 (previous close) with a target at $460 (Bollinger Upper Band) and a stop-loss at $344.65 (30D support). A breakout above $434.60 (intraday high) would validate the bullish case, while a close below $421.02 (intraday low) signals a retest of key support levels.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum with Regulatory Risks

Tesla’s trajectory hinges on three factors: 1) Execution of AI and robotaxi milestones, 2) Resolution of legal liabilities (e.g., Autopilot lawsuits), and 3) Regulatory clarity on emissions and EV incentives. The options market is pricing in a $450+ move, but a $320–$330 pullback remains a risk if the UK market challenges or CFO’s insider sales trigger profit-taking.

Traders should monitor the TSLA20250919C400 block trade (500 contracts at $2,730) as a liquidity gauge. A surge in put OI at $235–$320 (next Friday’s top puts) could signal a shift in sentiment. For now, the data supports a bullish bias—but with a tight stop-loss to mitigate downside surprises.