Tesla Soars 5.73% on Powell’s Dovish Remarks—Is This the Start of a Bullish Rebound?

Summary
• Tesla (TSLA) surges 5.73% to $338.46, hitting an intraday high of $339.55 amid Federal Reserve optimism.
• Intraday volume spikes to 78.7 million shares, outpacing the 2.9% turnover rate.
• Powell’s Jackson Hole comments spark a broad market rally, with Tesla’s FSD V14 and UK energy expansion adding fuel.
• The stock trades 29.5% below its 52-week high but remains a focal point for AI-driven semiconductor speculation.
Today’s sharp rally in Tesla reflects a confluence of macroeconomic optimism and strategic business developments. With the stock clawing back from a 10.7% YTD decline, traders are weighing whether this surge marks a sustainable rebound or a volatile bounce amid a broader market rotation into risk assets.

Federal Reserve Optimism Fuels Tesla’s Rally
Tesla’s 5.73% intraday surge is directly tied to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which signaled potential rate cuts. This ignited a broad market rally, with Tesla benefiting from its high-beta profile. Additionally, the stock’s momentum was amplified by strategic business updates, including the public launch of its Robotaxi service in Austin and FSD V14 software teases. While these developments are not fundamentally transformative, they reinforced investor confidence in Tesla’s autonomous technology roadmap and energy market expansion, aligning with the risk-on sentiment.

Automotive Sector Trails as Tesla Outperforms on Tech Hopes
The automotive sector, led by Toyota (TM) at +1.96%, underperformed Tesla’s rally, highlighting divergent investor priorities. While traditional automakers focus on cost-cutting and hybrid strategies, Tesla’s AI-driven autonomy and energy diversification efforts position it as a tech play. This gap underscores a broader market shift toward high-growth, innovation-led stocks, with Tesla leveraging its brand and R&D edge to outpace peers.

Leveraged ETFs and Call Options Signal Aggressive Bullish Setup
• 200-day average: 327.95 (below current price)
• RSI: 62.63 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 2.70 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 338.46, above middle band (323.82)
• Support/Resistance: 318.68–319.44 (short-term support), 325.06–330.22 (200D range)
• GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR) and Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL) are top leveraged plays, with TSLR up 11.37% and TSLL up 11.18% today.

Top Options Contracts:
• TSLA20250829C340
- Call, Strike: $340, Expiry: 2025-08-29
- IV: 38.66% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 49.88% (high), Delta: 0.4701 (moderate), Theta: -1.3031 (high decay), Gamma: 0.020584 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $31.09M
- IV (Implied Volatility): Reflects market uncertainty; Leverage Ratio: Amplifies price swings; Delta: Moderate sensitivity to underlying price; Theta: High time decay; Gamma: High sensitivity to price changes; Turnover: High liquidity.
- This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario. Projected payoff: max(0, 355.38 - 340) = $15.38/share.
• TSLA20250829C345
- Call, Strike: $345, Expiry: 2025-08-29
- IV: 38.75% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 70.35% (high), Delta: 0.3710 (moderate), Theta: -1.1097 (high decay), Gamma: 0.019509 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $7.25M
- IV (Implied Volatility): Reflects market uncertainty; Leverage Ratio: Amplifies price swings; Delta: Moderate sensitivity to underlying price; Theta: High time decay; Gamma: High sensitivity to price changes; Turnover: High liquidity.
- This contract’s high leverage ratio and moderate delta make it a high-reward option for a sustained rally. Projected payoff: max(0, 355.38 - 345) = $10.38/share.
Aggressive bulls may consider TSLA20250829C340 into a bounce above $330.

Backtest Tesla Stock Performance
Following a 6% intraday increase, Tesla (TSLA) demonstrated positive short-to-medium-term performance, with win rates and returns increasing across 3-day, 10-day, and 30-day backtested periods. The maximum return during the backtest was 7.99% over 30 days, indicating that TSLA tends to yield favorable outcomes after a significant intraday surge.

Tesla’s Rally Gains Momentum—Act Now on High-Leverage Plays
Tesla’s 5.73% surge reflects a confluence of macroeconomic optimism and strategic business momentum. While the stock remains 29.5% below its 52-week high, the technical setup—bullish MACD, overbought RSI, and strong volume—suggests a continuation of the rally. Investors should monitor the 330.22 resistance level and consider leveraged ETFs like TSLR or high-leverage call options for aggressive exposure. The sector leader, Toyota (TM), gained 1.96%, underscoring Tesla’s outperformance. Watch for a break above $340 to confirm the bullish trend and consider scaling into leveraged positions.