Tesla Soars 4.14%, Can This Bullish Surge Sustain the Hype?

Summary
• Tesla (TSLA) surges 4.14% to $317.95, defying 8% earnings-driven selloff from prior sessions
• Robotaxi debut in San Francisco triggers 4% intraday rally amid bearish 52W range
• 2025-08-01 options chain sees 56,208 contracts traded as bulls target $340 resistance

The stock’s dramatic reversal follows a Business Insider report confirming Tesla’s robotaxi launch in San Francisco this weekend, sparking a 4.14% rebound from a 48-hour 8% slump. With the stock trading above its 200-day MA of $319.29 and breaking through key Bollinger Band resistance at $331.44, the market is recalibrating its view on Elon Musk’s AI-centric vision. Leveraged ETFs like TSLT and TSLL surged 8.5% as institutional options activity suggests renewed bullish conviction.

Robotaxi Launch Sparks Short-Term Bullish Rebound
Tesla’s 4.14% intraday rally was catalyzed by Business Insider’s report confirming the robotaxi service’s San Francisco debut as early as this weekend. Despite broader earnings-driven pessimism—reflected in a 48-hour 8% selloff—the market interpreted the robotaxi timeline as a critical step toward Musk’s AI-driven future. This triggered a short-covering rally as bears capitulated near the 52W low of $182. The move coincided with elevated options volume (112.8M turnover) and leveraged ETF inflows, suggesting institutional positioning for a near-term breakout above $330.

Autonomous Vehicles Sector Diverges as Nvidia Leads with 0.56% Gains
While Tesla surged, its sector leader Alphabet A (GOOGL) rose 0.56%, reflecting broader AI optimism. Nvidia’s quiet dominance in autonomous vehicle infrastructure—via partnerships with GM, Rivian, and Toyota—positions it as a less volatile alternative to Tesla’s speculative AI narrative. The sector’s divergence highlights investor preference for established AI infrastructure plays over unproven consumer-facing robotics bets.

Leveraged ETFs and Call Options Signal Aggressive Bullish Setup
• 200-day average: $319.29 (near current price)
• RSI: 45.44 (oversold territory)
• MACD: 0.93 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $291.44–$339.22 (testing upper band)

Technical indicators suggest a short-term bullish setup with key support at $315.33 (middle Bollinger) and resistance at $339.22. The 4.14% rally has compressed the short-term bearish trend, creating a high-probability trade into the $330–$340 range. Leveraged ETFs like TSLT (8.5% up) and TSLL (8.4% up) offer amplified exposure to this move.

Top Call Option 1: TSLA20250801C320
• Strike: $320 | Delta: 0.4878 (moderate sensitivity)
• IV Ratio: 42.61% (reasonable volatility)
• Theta: -1.3198 (aggressive time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0198 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: $39.2M (liquid)
• Leverage Ratio: 42.92% (high reward potential)
• Payoff at 5% Upside ($333.85): $13.85/share. This contract offers optimal leverage with strong gamma and theta characteristics, ideal for a breakout above $330.

Top Call Option 2: TSLA20250801C322.5
• Strike: $322.5 | Delta: 0.4392 (moderate sensitivity)
• IV Ratio: 42.80% (reasonable volatility)
• Theta: -1.2366 (aggressive time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0195 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: $9.7M (liquid)
• Leverage Ratio: 50.07% (high reward potential)
• Payoff at 5% Upside ($333.85): $11.35/share. This option balances strike price and leverage, positioning well for a continuation above $325.

Aggressive bulls should target TSLA20250801C320 into a $330 close.

Backtest Tesla Stock Performance
Following a 4% intraday increase, Tesla (TSLA) experienced significant performance gains, with a strategy that capitalized on this momentum yielding impressive results. The backtest reveals a 229.39% strategy return, vastly outperforming the benchmark return of 88.37%. With an excess return of 141.02% and a CAGR of 27.09%, the strategy demonstrated robust growth potential. Additionally, the Sharpe ratio of 0.41 and a maximum drawdown of 0% highlight the strategy's risk-adjusted returns and capital preservation capabilities.

Breakout Above $330 Could Trigger Multi-Baggers in AI Playbook
Tesla’s 4.14% rebound suggests a near-term bullish bias as robotaxi momentum overrides earnings pessimism. Key levels to watch: $320 (psychological hurdle), $330 (Bollinger Band), and $340 (52W high). A sustained close above $330 would validate the 52W range breakout, potentially unlocking $360–$380 targets aligned with the 324.33 dynamic PE. Alphabet A (GOOGL)’s 0.56% gain underscores AI’s broader appeal, but Tesla’s leveraged options and ETFs offer higher reward potential for aggressive bulls. Watch for $330 confirmation or $315.33 breakdown—either could define the next phase of this AI-driven rally.