Tesla Surges 2.74%—Is the Road to Self-Driving Glory Paved with Regulatory Cracks?

Summary
• Tesla shares surged 2.74% to $349.34, hitting an intraday high of $349.53 amid mixed news on Model YL production delays and regulatory scrutiny.
• Elon Musk warned the Model YL may not reach U.S. markets until 2026 due to self-driving advancements, while NHTSA probes Tesla’s crash reporting delays.
• Leveraged ETFs like TSLT and TSLR jumped 5.5% as bulls bet on short-term volatility.

Tesla’s stock is trading near its 52-week high of $488.54, with a dynamic P/E of 356.35, as investors weigh optimism over AI-driven robotaxi progress against regulatory headwinds. The intraday range of $335.03 to $349.53 highlights a volatile session driven by conflicting narratives.

Model YL Delays and NHTSA Scrutiny Fuel Volatility
Tesla’s 2.74% rally reflects a tug-of-war between bullish AI-driven robotaxi momentum and bearish regulatory risks. Elon Musk’s warning that the Model YL will not reach U.S. markets until 2026—citing self-driving advancements—sparked short-term optimism. However, the NHTSA’s investigation into Tesla’s delayed crash reporting (up to months instead of days) introduced uncertainty. The stock’s surge suggests investors are prioritizing near-term AI hype over long-term regulatory risks, with leveraged ETFs like TSLT and TSLR amplifying the move.

Leveraged ETFs and Call Options Lead the Charge
• 200-day average: 328.41 (below current price); RSI: 68.64 (neutral); MACD: 3.52 (bullish); Bollinger Bands: 301.77–348.27 (price near upper band).

Tesla’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend amid long-term consolidation. The 200-day average at $328.41 acts as a critical support level, while the RSI near 68.64 indicates moderate momentum. MACD above the signal line and price near the upper Bollinger Band at $348.27 signal a potential continuation of the rally. Leveraged ETFs like TSLT (5.5% up) and TSLR (5.5% up) offer amplified exposure to this move.

Top Options Picks:
• TSLA20250829C340 (Call, $340 strike, 8/29 expiry):
- IV: 46.76% (moderate); Leverage: 27.55% (high); Delta: 0.6876 (moderate); Theta: -2.6091 (high decay); Gamma: 0.018556 (high sensitivity); Turnover: $55.4M (liquid).
- This call option balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (targeting $366.80). A 5% move would yield a 32.5% payoff (max(0, 366.80 - 340)).
• TSLA20250829C345 (Call, $345 strike, 8/29 expiry):
- IV: 45.80% (moderate); Leverage: 37.04% (high); Delta: 0.5894 (moderate); Theta: -2.3964 (high decay); Gamma: 0.020815 (high sensitivity); Turnover: $52.1M (liquid).
- This contract offers higher leverage (37%) and gamma, making it suitable for aggressive bulls. A 5% move would generate a 40% payoff (max(0, 366.80 - 345)).

Aggressive bulls may consider TSLA20250829C340 into a bounce above $330.

Backtest Tesla Stock Performance
Following a 3% intraday increase, Tesla (TSLA) delivered remarkable performance, significantly outshining the benchmark. The backtest reveals a strategy return of 224.19%, with an excess return of 131.83% relative to the benchmark, which achieved a return of 92.36% during the same period. This indicates TSLA's strong momentum post-intraday surge, with a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, suggesting no capital loss during the backtest period, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.40, indicating a good risk-adjusted return.

Tesla’s Rally Faces Crucial Crossroads—Act Now or Miss the Wave
Tesla’s 2.74% surge hinges on its ability to balance AI-driven optimism with regulatory risks. The 200-day average at $328.41 and the 340/345 call options offer clear entry points for bulls. However, the NHTSA investigation and Model YL delays could trigger a pullback if sentiment shifts. Sector leader General Motors (GM) fell 0.19%, underscoring the sector’s mixed performance. Investors should monitor the $340 level and regulatory updates—a break above could validate the rally, while a drop below $335 may signal caution. For now, leveraged ETFs and the 340/345 calls provide the most dynamic exposure to Tesla’s volatile trajectory.