Tesla Stock Jumps 3.21% as Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal Toward $331 Resistance

Tesla (TSLA) closed at $329.65, rising 3.21% in the most recent session, setting the context for the following technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Tesla's price action shows a bullish reversal pattern emerging from the July 10th low of $300, with successive higher highs culminating in the recent $330.9 peak. This establishes immediate resistance at $330.9–$331 (today’s high aligning with the June 20th swing high). A sustained breach above $331 could challenge the $340–$342 confluence zone (June 24th high and 78.6% Fibonacci level). Support resides at $321.4 (today’s low), reinforced by the psychological $300 floor (July 7th low). The recovery from oversold conditions reflects accumulation near $300, though rejection at $331 may signal short-term exhaustion.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (hovering near $315) crossed bullishly above the 100-day MA (∼$305) in early July, confirming a revitalized intermediate uptrend. Price holding above both underscores bullish momentum. Long-term bias remains positive with the 200-day MA ascending near $285. A "golden cross" formation (50-day > 200-day) persists, though the 50-day MA’s flattening warrants monitoring for potential consolidation. Confluence support emerges at $320, where the 20-day EMA converges with the July 14th pivot low.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD registers a bullish crossover above its signal line, with the histogram expanding positively since July 11th. This aligns with momentum recovery from oversold territory. KDJ oscillators show the %K line (88) and %D line (82) in overbought territory, suggesting near-term exhaustion risk after the 14% rally from July’s low. However, sustained histogram momentum and KDJ values above 80 reflect strong directional bias. Divergence is absent currently; both oscillators corroborate the price rebound.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction preceded the July upswing, with bands tightening notably between July 7th–10th. Price has since rebounded from the lower band to test the upper band ($331.5), signaling bullish breakout confirmation. Band expansion during this rally supports trend continuation. A close above the upper band may foreshorten consolidation, while rejection here could retest the 20-day midline ($318.5). The absence of "squeeze" conditions now reduces reversal probability.
Volume-Price Relationship
Bullish volume conviction validates the recovery: the July 10th 4.73% surge occurred on 104M shares (YTD’s 6th highest volume), while subsequent rallies (July 16th +3.5%, 93M shares; today +3.21%, 94M shares) saw volume exceed the 30-day average. This distribution—elevated volume on up days, muted volume during pullbacks—confirms accumulation. The July 7th sell-off (-6.79%, 131M shares) marked capitulation, further strengthening the reversal thesis.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (64) has exited oversold territory but remains below overbought thresholds, indicating room for upside. During the June–July decline, RSI hit 28 (July 7th), diverging mildly from price’s lower low and foreshadowing momentum exhaustion. Current readings show no bearish divergence, though proximity to 70 may attract profit-taking. Traders should note that RSI’s warning nature was evident in April when readings >80 preceded a 15% pullback.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the swing high of $357.54 (June 23rd) and swing low of $288.77 (July 7th) shows Tesla testing the critical 61.8% retracement at $331.27. Today’s high ($330.9) respected this resistance, creating a technical inflection point. A confirmed breakout targets the 78.6% level ($342.8). This aligns with horizontal resistance at $340–$342 (June 24th high), forming a high-probability confluence zone. The 50% retracement ($323.15) now acts as primary support.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
A notable confluence exists at $331–$332, where Bollinger Band resistance, the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and today’s high converge. MACD, volume, and moving averages unanimously support bullish momentum, though KDJ overbought signals and RSI’s approach toward 70 introduce near-term caution. No material divergences were observed; all oscillators realigned with price action following July’s reversal. Downside risk appears contained above $320 absent volume-backed breakdowns.