Tesla Surges 2.75% as Legal Storm and Analyst Doubts Collide—What’s Fueling the Volatility?

Summary
• Tesla (TSLA) surges 2.75% to $317.23, trading above its 52-week low of $194.67
• Intraday range spans $306.93 to $319.56, with turnover hitting 45.96 million shares
• Shareholders sue Tesla over alleged securities fraud tied to self-driving claims
• Analysts debate whether Tesla’s 185x P/E is justified amid robotaxi delays

Today’s 2.75% rally in Tesla’s shares has ignited a firestorm of speculation, with the stock trading near its 52-week high of $488.54. The move follows a lawsuit alleging securities fraud over self-driving claims and a chorus of analysts questioning the stock’s valuation. With the EV sector in flux and leveraged ETFs like TSLR surging 5.66%, investors are scrambling to decode the catalysts behind this volatile session.

Legal Scrutiny and Analyst Skepticism Spark Volatility
Tesla’s 2.75% intraday gain is driven by a collision of legal risks and valuation debates. A class-action lawsuit filed against Tesla and Elon Musk accuses the company of securities fraud over its autonomous driving claims, citing misleading statements during the robotaxi launch. Meanwhile, analysts like Chad Morganlander of Washington Crossing Advisors have labeled Tesla’s 185x trailing P/E ratio as 'insane,' arguing the stock trades more like a speculative story than a traditional automaker. The lawsuit adds to investor anxiety, as does Musk’s recent public split from Trump and his leadership of the DOGE initiative, creating a layer of headline risk. These factors have amplified short-term volatility, with traders hedging against regulatory and earnings uncertainties.

EV Sector Mixed as Ford Gains 1.4% Amid Tariff Uncertainty
The broader EV sector remains fragmented, with Ford (F) rising 1.4% as investors bet on its more conservative valuation and exposure to U.S. manufacturing. Tesla’s leveraged ETFs, including TSLR (+5.66%) and TSLT (+5.57%), have outperformed, reflecting aggressive bullish sentiment. However, peers like Lucid (LCID) and NIO (NIO) lag, with Lucid down 8.68% on concerns about production delays. The sector’s divergence underscores Tesla’s unique position as both a carmaker and a tech play, with its valuation and robotaxi ambitions setting it apart from traditional automakers.

Leveraged ETFs and Call Options Highlight Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 322.49 (above) • RSI: 43.21 (neutral) • MACD: -2.17 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 336.73 (upper), 295.96 (lower)

Tesla’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish trend within a long-term range, but the 2.75% rally has triggered renewed call option activity. The GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR) and T-Rex 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLT) have surged 5.66% and 5.57%, respectively, amplifying long exposure. Key support/resistance levels at $315.34 and $325.46 will be critical for near-term direction.

Top Options Picks:
• TSLA20250815C315: Call option with strike price $315, 42.51% implied volatility, 30.40% leverage ratio, delta 0.5674, theta -1.1559, gamma 0.017594, turnover 10.78 million. This contract offers moderate leverage and liquidity, ideal for a bullish breakout above $315. If Tesla closes above $315 by August 15, the payoff would be $2.23 per share (5.78% gain).
• TSLA20250815C320: Call option with strike price $320, 42.28% implied volatility, 40.05% leverage ratio, delta 0.4782, theta -1.0502, gamma 0.017920, turnover 10.85 million. This option balances time decay and gamma sensitivity, making it a strong play if the stock tests $320. A 5% upside to $333.14 would yield a $13.14 payoff (4.09% gain).

Aggressive bulls should consider TSLA20250815C315 into a breakout above $315, while TSLA20250815C320 offers a balanced risk-reward profile for a sustained rally. Watch for a breakdown below $315 to trigger short-side opportunities.

Backtest Tesla Stock Performance
Following a 3% intraday increase, Tesla (TSLA) has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data reveals favorable win rates and returns for 3, 10, and 30 days after the event, with maximum returns of 7.91% observed over 30 days.

Tesla’s Rally Faces Crucial Test—Act Now on Key Levels
Tesla’s 2.75% surge is a high-stakes gamble between regulatory risks and bullish momentum. The stock’s ability to hold above $315.34 (30D support) and $325.46 (200D resistance) will determine its near-term trajectory. With Ford (F) rising 1.4%, the EV sector remains a mixed bag, but Tesla’s leveraged ETFs and options activity suggest lingering conviction. Investors should monitor the lawsuit’s impact on sentiment and watch for a breakout above $319.56 (intraday high) to validate the rally. For now, TSLA20250815C315 and TSLA20250815C320 offer the best leverage to capitalize on a potential continuation of the bullish trend.