Tesla Shares Climb Despite 16% Drop in Q4 Deliveries

Tesla Q4 2025 Delivery Results: A Deep Dive

Tesla (TSLA) reported 418,227 vehicle deliveries in Q4 2025, a 16% drop from the 495,570 units delivered in the same period in 2024. The results marked the automaker's second consecutive quarter of declining deliveries.

For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 9% from 1.79 million in 2024. Chinese competitor BYD, with 2.26 million deliveries, now holds the title of the world's largest EV maker.

The drop follows the expiration of the U.S. $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit in September, which had driven a surge in third-quarter deliveries. Analysts had expected 440,000 deliveries for the quarter, but Tesla fell significantly short.

Why Did This Happen?

Tesla's deliveries declined amid reduced demand for EVs and heightened global competition. The U.S. tax credit's expiration led to a sharp drop in sales after a third-quarter boost.

In Europe, Tesla faced declining sales linked to customer backlash over CEO Elon Musk's political stances. In China, the company lost market share to expanding local automakers.

Tesla also lacked new vehicle launches after the underperforming Cybertruck, which delayed a potential sales boost. The company has focused on cost-cutting measures and new product lines like the Model 3/Y Standard.

How Did Markets React?

Despite the disappointing delivery results, Tesla shares rose 1.9% in pre-market trading on January 2, 2026. Investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term plans in robotaxi and humanoid robots according to market analysts.

For 2025, Tesla's stock gained about 11.4%, outperforming broader market declines in the auto sector. Analysts see continued focus on Musk's AI and robotics ambitions as a key driver for investor sentiment.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts will closely watch Tesla's Q4 earnings report, scheduled for January 28, 2026, for signs of stabilization in its core business. The company will also need to demonstrate progress in international markets and new product launches according to financial analysts.

Long-term, investors are monitoring whether Tesla can achieve Musk's ambitious 2027 delivery target of 2 million vehicles. Analysts project a gradual rise in deliveries, with 1.75 million expected in 2026 and 2.35 million in 2028.

The company's energy business, however, remains a bright spot. Tesla deployed a record 14.2 gigawatt-hours of energy storage in Q4 2025, indicating diversification beyond vehicle sales.