Tesla's Robotaxi Rollout: A Bearish Technical Play on Overvalued Optimism

The market's euphoria around Tesla's upcoming Robotaxi rollout has pushed shares to precarious heights, but a closer look at the technicals and valuation suggests a high-risk, high-reward scenario ripe for bearish options strategies. With the stock hovering near $322—a 153x forward P/E ratio and an RSI nearing 62—investors betting on a flawless execution may be setting themselves up for disappointment.

The Technical Tightrope: Overbought Metrics and Shifting Momentum

Tesla's technicals paint a picture of a stock clinging to support levels while balancing unsustainable optimism.

The RSI has crept toward the 70 “overbought” threshold, a sign that Tesla's recent rally—driven by hype around autonomous driving milestones—may lack sustainable momentum. Meanwhile, the critical $332 20-day moving average (MA) acts as a short-term battleground. A sustained breach below this level could trigger a sharp selloff, especially given the stock's beta of 2.47, which amplifies volatility in shifting market conditions.

Valuation Skepticism: A 153x P/E vs. Execution Realities

Tesla's forward P/E of 153x (vs. an industry average of ~20x for EV peers) implies investors are pricing in flawless execution of its Robotaxi vision. Yet, the path to profitability remains littered with obstacles. Waymo's lead in autonomous tech, regulatory hurdles, and Tesla's own struggles in its core EV business—evident in its $293.50 analyst consensus target (10% below current prices)—highlight the gap between hype and reality.

Bearish Option Strategy: Playing the Post-Launch Disappointment

For traders willing to bet on a correction, put spreads offer a measured approach to capitalize on Tesla's potential downside:
1. Short a put spread with strikes at $320 and $290, expiring in 3–6 months. This limits risk to the $30 spread while profiting if shares drop below $320.
2. Target Waymo's Q4 2025 pilot launch as a catalyst for Tesla skepticism, paired with potential earnings misses in its core automotive division.

The Long-Term Floor: $220—But Don't Count on Near-Term Stability

While Tesla's $220 level—a historic support from its 2020 bull run—could act as a long-term floor, traders should focus on near-term risks. The stock's MACD buy signal and $327.20 Fibonacci pivot suggest short-term resilience, but these are fleeting in the face of valuation overreach and execution risks.

Final Take: A Cautionary Tale of Tech Hype

Tesla's Robotaxi ambitions are bold, but its technical indicators and sky-high valuation scream caution. For traders, betting against the narrative—using bearish options to hedge against post-launch reality checks—offers a disciplined path to profit in what could be a bumpy ride ahead.

Investment Recommendation: Consider a bearish put spread (e.g., $320/$290) with a 6-month expiration. Avoid long positions until the stock tests $220 support or valuation multiples contract significantly.

Risk Disclosure: Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.