Tesla Robotaxi Hype Questioned Ahead of San Francisco Launch

Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund LLC, expressed skepticism about Tesla's robotaxi service, stating that Full Self-Driving (FSD) cannot be considered fully autonomous without a safety driver. He compared this to Uber, which is trading near its all-time high. Tesla plans to launch its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area, but Black emphasized the limitations of supervised tests and the need for significant advancements in autonomous technology.

Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund LLC, has expressed skepticism about Tesla's upcoming robotaxi service, particularly concerning the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system. Black asserts that FSD cannot be considered fully autonomous without a human safety driver, comparing this to the operational model of Uber, which is currently trading near its all-time high. Despite this skepticism, Tesla is planning to launch its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area.

According to reports, Tesla may deploy a supervised robotaxi service as early as this weekend in the San Francisco Bay Area. The service will feature a human safety driver, similar to the supervised tests conducted in Austin, Texas [1]. Tesla has been testing its FSD system extensively in California, with a permit for testing vehicles with a safety driver. However, Tesla has not yet applied for permits to operate an actual Robotaxi service without a human driver.

Black emphasizes the limitations of supervised tests, stating that while they can provide valuable data, they do not demonstrate the full capabilities of a vehicle operating without human intervention. He also points out the need for significant advancements in autonomous technology before a vehicle can be considered fully autonomous.

In contrast, Uber's self-driving unit, Uber ATG, faced regulatory challenges when it attempted to test vehicles with safety drivers in California. The California DMV refused to allow Uber to test its vehicles without the necessary permits, stating that the vehicles were autonomous and required the appropriate permits [1].

Tesla's approach to testing and deployment differs from that of other companies. While companies like Waymo and Baidu Apollo operate unsupervised robotaxis, Tesla is focusing on supervised services. This allows Tesla to expand its service area more rapidly, as seen in its Austin deployment, which expanded to cover a large territory [1].

However, Black cautions that the rapid expansion of a supervised service does not necessarily translate to significant advancements in technology. He notes that while Tesla's service can learn and improve, the cost of human supervisors and the infrastructure required for localization can be substantial.

In conclusion, while Tesla's robotaxi service represents an important step in the development of autonomous vehicles, the skepticism surrounding the Full Self-Driving system and the need for regulatory approvals highlight the challenges ahead. The upcoming launch in the San Francisco Bay Area will be a significant test of Tesla's technology and its ability to navigate regulatory hurdles.

References:
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2025/07/25/tesla-doesnt-need-permits-for-their-ca-robotaxi-it-may-come-today/