Tesla and Rivian Deliveries Beat Estimates, But Analyst Sees Double-Digit Headwind Without EV Tax Credit

Tesla and Rivian reported Q3 vehicle deliveries above consensus, with Tesla at 497,000, up 7% YoY, and Rivian at 13,200, up 32% YoY. Analyst Mark Delaney estimates the loss of the federal EV tax credit could lead to a "double-digit percent headwind" for the sector. Tesla's US sales were up 10% YoY, while European and Chinese sales were down YoY but up QoQ. The analyst maintains Neutral ratings on both companies and adjusts price targets to $425 for Tesla and $15 for Rivian.

In the third quarter of 2025, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) reported robust vehicle deliveries, exceeding analysts' expectations. Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles, marking a 7.4% year-over-year (YoY) increase and its highest quarterly deliveries to date Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Hit Quarterly Record, Rise 7% To Exceed Analyst Estimates^[1]. Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles, representing a 32% YoY jump Rivian Automotive Inc.: Navigating the Electric Frontier Amidst Shifting Tides^[2].

Analyst Mark Delaney estimates that the expiration of the federal EV tax credit could pose a "double-digit percent headwind" for the sector. Tesla's U.S. sales surged 10% YoY, while European and Chinese sales declined YoY but improved quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Delaney maintains a Neutral rating for both companies and adjusts price targets to $425 for Tesla and $15 for Rivian.

Tesla's strong Q3 performance was driven by U.S. customers rushing to make EV purchases before the federal tax credit expired on September 30. The company produced 447,450 vehicles and deployed 12.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage products, marking an 81% YoY growth Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Hit Quarterly Record, Rise 7% To Exceed Analyst Estimates^[1]. Tesla shares traded 3% higher in the pre-market session at the time of writing.

Rivian's Q3 deliveries were bolstered by its strategic partnerships, such as its $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen Group. The company achieved its first-ever positive gross profit earlier in 2025 but continues to grapple with profitability and high cash burn. Rivian's current offerings include the R1T electric pickup truck, the R1S electric SUV, and Electric Delivery Vans (EDVs) for commercial customers like Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN).

While other automakers like Ford and General Motors also reported a significant rise in EV sales in the U.S. in the third quarter, their EV sales numbers trail behind Tesla’s. Chinese EV giant BYD reported 582,522 battery electric passenger vehicle sales in Q3 Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Hit Quarterly Record, Rise 7% To Exceed Analyst Estimates^[1].