Tesla Rebounds 3.67% After 14.26% Plunge Tests Key Support At $273

Tesla (TSLA) gained 3.67% in the latest session (2025-06-06), closing at $295.14 after trading between $291.14 and $305.50. This followed a significant -14.26% decline on 2025-06-05, which established a potential short-term low at $273.21 with exceptionally high volume of 292.8 million shares traded. The following technical assessment integrates multiple perspectives on Tesla’s price action over the past year.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session formed a bullish hammer candle after the prior day’s long red candle and spike in volume, suggesting exhaustion of selling pressure near $273.21. This level now acts as immediate support, with the intraday high of $305.50 serving as initial resistance. A sustained break above $305.50 may confirm bullish reversal potential. The volatility expansion on 2025-06-05 (range: $273.21–$324.55) created a key swing low after Tesla’s descent from the $355–$365 resistance zone observed earlier in May.
Moving Average Theory
Tesla’s 200-day moving average (approx. $280) provided critical support during the recent sell-off, aligning with the 2025-06-05 low. The 50-day MA (approx. $315) currently caps upside attempts, while the 100-day MA (approx. $305) converges with the latest session’s high. A "death cross" configuration persists with the 50-day below the 200-day, confirming the broader downtrend since the April 2025 peak near $420. Reclaiming the 100-day MA would signal improving medium-term momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows nascent positive divergence despite price making lower lows in early June, implying weakening downward momentum. The KDJ oscillator exited oversold territory (sub-30) on 2025-06-06, with the %K line crossing above %D—a potential bullish crossover. However, both indicators remain below their midpoint levels, suggesting bearish momentum persists. Confluence between MACD divergence and KDJ reversal warrants monitoring for follow-through buying.
Bollinger Bands
The bands widened sharply during the 2025-06-05 sell-off, reflecting volatility expansion after the prolonged contraction in late May. Price closed below the lower band that day, indicating an oversold extreme, then reverted inside the bands on 2025-06-06. Bandwidth remains elevated, supporting continued near-term volatility. A close above the 20-day moving average (near $315) would signal stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
The sell-off on 2025-06-05 recorded the highest volume in the dataset (292.8M shares), suggesting capitulation. The subsequent 3.67% rally occurred on reduced volume (162.8M shares), raising questions about sustainability. Earlier breakdowns below $340 in late May were validated by expanding volume, while the April 2025 surge to $420 featured declining volume—a bearish divergence that preceded the current downtrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded from deeply oversold levels (22.3 on 2025-06-05) to 41.8, exiting the oversold zone but remaining below the neutral 50 threshold. While the oversold reading warned of exhaustion, RSI has consistently made lower highs since April 2025, diverging bearishly against price during corrective rallies. Sustained improvement above 50 is needed to confirm momentum recovery.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the March–April 2025 rally (low: $210.73, high: $419.99) shows Tesla recently breached the 61.8% retracement at $288.70. The 78.6% level near $273.70 aligned with the 2025-06-05 low. A convincing close above $288.70 could open recovery toward the 50% retracement ($315.36). The 2025-06-06 close at $295.14 positions Tesla just above the 61.8% level, making this a key support for bulls.
Confluence and Divergence
Notable confluence exists between the 200-day MA ($280), Fibonacci 78.6% level ($273.70), and the 2025-06-05 low ($273.21). This zone offers robust support. Bullish divergences include MACD histogram improvement and KDJ reversal coinciding with price stabilization. However, volume divergence during rebounds and RSI’s failure to exceed 50 warrant caution. The technical structure remains bearish below the 50-day MA ($315), while a decisive break above $305–$315 (aligning with the 100-day MA and Fibonacci 50%) could activate short-term recovery potential.