Tesla Rebounds 3.52% After 8.20% Plunge As 300 Support Holds

Tesla gained 3.52% in the most recent session, closing at $316.06 after trading between $308.01 and $323.63. This advance follows a significant 8.20% decline in the preceding session, establishing $300.41 as a critical near-term low.
Candlestick Theory
The price action shows a hammer formation on July 24 (low: $300.41, close: $305.30) following an 8.20% decline, signaling potential reversal confirmation when succeeded by the 3.52% bullish candle. Key resistance emerges near $323–$340, aligning with recent upper wicks and the June 23 peak ($357.54). Support is firm at $300–$305, validated by multiple rejections of lower prices, including the July 11 swing low ($305.65).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day EMA ($312) provided dynamic support during the July 24 sell-off, while the 100-day EMA ($328) and 200-day EMA ($345) loom overhead as resistance. Tesla’s current price sits above the 50-day EMA but below the 100/200-day EMAs, reflecting a challenging intermediate trend. A sustained break above the 100-day EMA would signal improving momentum, though the long-term downtrend remains intact below the 200-day EMA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the signal line crossing bullishly after the July 25 rebound. This suggests building upside momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ’s %K line (56) is rising from oversold territory but remains below the overbought threshold (80). Both oscillators align in signaling near-term bullish momentum, though the KDJ’s moderate position indicates room for further upside before overextension.
Bollinger Bands
July’s consolidation between $300–$320 squeezed the bands, indicating reduced volatility ahead of the breakout above the midline ($315). The recent close near the upper band ($325) implies short-term overbought conditions. A band expansion above $325 would confirm bullish momentum, while a rejection could retest the midline. Historical band support near $295 reinforces the $300 psychological floor.
Volume-Price Relationship
The July 24 sell-off occurred on elevated volume (156M shares), suggesting capitulation. The subsequent rally had lower volume (147M shares), creating a bearish divergence that questions sustainability. However, accumulation days on July 18 (94M shares, +3.21%) and July 10 (104M shares, +4.73%) validated earlier advances, indicating that renewed volume participation is critical for extending gains beyond $323.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (58) rebounded from near-oversold levels (34 on July 24) but remains below overbought territory. This recovery suggests waning downside momentum without yet signaling overextension. Notably, the June 5 plunge to $284.70 saw RSI at 28, marking a key oversold extreme that preceded a 22% rally. Current RSI positioning supports further near-term upside potential.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels between the March 24 trough ($256.33) and June 23 peak ($357.54) shows critical thresholds. The 61.8% retracement ($323) rejected prices on July 25 (high: $323.63), while the 50% level ($307) provided intraday support during the July 24 sell-off. A decisive break above $323 would target the 38.2% retracement at $340 – a zone aligning with the 100-day EMA and July high ($323.63), creating significant confluence resistance.
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Confluence exists at $323–$340, where Fibonacci resistance, the 100-day EMA, Bollinger upper band, and prior swing highs converge. A volume-backed breakout above this zone would signal a trend reversal. Key divergence lies in the lack of volume confirmation during the July 25 rally versus high-volume selling, warranting caution. Overall, indicators suggest Tesla is in a technical recovery phase within a broader downtrend, with $300–$305 acting as critical support and $323–$340 offering formidable resistance.