Tesla Q3 deliveries 497,099, est. 439,612

Tesla Q3 deliveries 497,099, est. 439,612

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to release its third-quarter deliveries report on October 2, with analysts predicting a significant increase in vehicle deliveries. The company delivered 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter, 384,122 in the second quarter, and 462,890 in the third quarter of 2024 .

William Blair has revised its estimate for Q3 deliveries to 480,000 vehicles, surpassing the current consensus of 448,000 . This upward revision is attributed to the expiration of the $7,500 U.S. electric vehicle tax credit, which has driven stronger demand than anticipated . Analyst Jed Dorsheimer noted that the pull-forward in demand has been significant, but he cautioned that fourth-quarter results could be pressured by weaker margins and softer revenue from regulatory credits .

Despite these concerns, Tesla's stock has surged more than 36% over the last six weeks, reaching near all-time highs. The rally is attributed to momentum from new initiatives such as robotaxi plans, Elon Musk's recent stock purchase, and energy storage products . Additionally, demand for the Model Y in the U.S. and a rebound in China are offsetting weakness in European markets .

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas highlighted Tesla's potential, noting that while it is the smallest of the "Magnificent Seven," its addressable markets, particularly in the emerging field of physical artificial intelligence, are significant .

Tesla's Q3 deliveries are expected to be around 497,099 vehicles, with an estimated delivery count of 439,612 . The company's ability to maintain this momentum and navigate the challenges ahead will be critical in determining its future performance.