Tesla's Q1 Deliveries: A Storm on the Horizon?

As the first quarter of 2025 unfolds, Tesla (TSLA) faces a potential challenge with its quarterly deliveries. According to researcher Troy Teslike, Tesla's EV deliveries in Q1 could drop below the 400,000-unit mark, a threshold the company hasn't breached since Q3 2022. This news has raised eyebrows among investors, as it could impact Tesla's overall 2025 sales target and, consequently, its stock price.

Teslike attributes this potential decline to several factors, including production limitations for the refreshed Model Y, poor brand sentiment, and seasonal demand fluctuations. However, he also notes that the launch of the new Model Y could potentially offset some of these negative factors. If Tesla's Q1 deliveries indeed fall below 400,000 units, it could have significant implications for the company's overall 2025 sales target and its stock price.

Wall Street analysts have a tepid outlook for Tesla's 2025 sales target, with FactSet gathering predictions of 2.07 million vehicles sold, up 16% from 2024. However, several factors contribute to this pessimistic outlook, including the end of US EV incentives, increased competition from Chinese EV companies, Elon Musk's political ties, and a stale vehicle lineup.

Tesla's stock price has been volatile in recent months, with shares trading at around $405.63 at the time of reporting. Some analysts, like Mike Investing, project that Tesla will outperform the broader market in 2025, with a potential breakout and rally towards the $800 level. However, other analysts, such as Gordon Johnson, argue that Musk's political ties and controversial statements could hurt demand for Tesla cars among liberal buyers.



In conclusion, a potential drop in Tesla's Q1 deliveries could impact the company's overall 2025 sales target and have implications for its stock price. The company faces several challenges, including production limitations, competition, and political controversies, which could affect its performance in the coming year. Tesla will need to address these issues and adapt to the changing market landscape to maintain its competitive edge in the global EV market.