Tesla's Post-Trump Feud Rally: A Buying Opportunity Amid Autonomous Ambitions

The Tesla stock plunge triggered by Elon Musk's public feud with Donald Trump in June 2025 masked a deeper truth: the company's autonomous future remains a transformative force. While the spat caused a 14% one-day drop—erasing $151 billion in market value—the sharp rebound that followed suggests investors are distinguishing between transient political noise and Tesla's core strategic catalysts, particularly its June 12 Robotaxi launch. For contrarian investors, this volatility presents a compelling entry point.

The Feud as a Transient Headwind

The Musk-Trump clash—rooted in political differences and regulatory threats—sparked fears of subsidy cuts and contractual fallout. Analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush called it a “jaw-dropping” shock, but noted Tesla's stock became “oversold,” pricing in worst-case scenarios. While Trump's administration could impose hurdles, the feud's resolution (or mutual dependence) may prove fleeting compared to Tesla's long-term roadmap.

The June 12 Robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas, is the linchpin. This marks Tesla's first public trial of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) Unsupervised system, a milestone that could validate its $200 billion autonomous mobility market opportunity by 2030. Early data from employee testing in Austin and Los Angeles shows progress, though regulatory scrutiny—particularly after a 2023 fatal crash—remains a risk.

Wall Street's Divided View: Bulls on Tech, Bears on Execution

Analysts are split. Ives remains bullish, valuing Tesla's autonomous future at $1 trillion, citing its first-mover advantage in software-as-a-service (SaaS) monetization. He argues the Robotaxi rollout could unlock recurring revenue streams, transforming Tesla from a carmaker to a mobility tech leader.

Garrett Nelson of CFRA, however, warns of near-term pitfalls. He highlights Tesla's declining Q1 profits (down 71% year-on-year), weakening market share in China and Europe, and the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction post-Robotaxi launch. Safety concerns, including unresolved NHTSA investigations, further cloud the path.

Fundamentals: A Battle of Short-Term vs. Long-Term

Tesla's challenges are real. Its global market share has eroded to 14% (from 18% in 2022) as Chinese rivals like BYD surge. Margins are squeezed by price cuts and $2.8 billion reliance on carbon credits. Yet, the EV market's long-term trajectory favors Tesla's scale and innovation. The global EV market is projected to hit 45 million units by 2030, up from 14 million in 2023, with autonomous systems like FSD becoming table stakes.

Tesla's software stack—now unified with safety features like Lane Departure Avoidance on its FSD platform—demonstrates incremental progress. Optimus, its humanoid robot, hints at broader AI capabilities. Even Musk's distraction may be overblown; his focus on politics has not derailed Robotaxi testing or software updates like FSD V12.4.

Investment Thesis: A Strategic Entry Amid Volatility

The feud-induced dip creates a rare opportunity to buy Tesla at a $220 price—nearly 30% below its 2023 peak. Bulls should prioritize the Robotaxi launch's success: a smooth rollout could reaccelerate growth, while failures might prolong the selloff.

For investors with a 5+ year horizon, Tesla's autonomous ambitions and EV dominance justify a 5–10% portfolio allocation. Conservative investors might pair Tesla stock with ecosystem plays like NVIDIA (GPU provider) or CATL (battery partner) to mitigate execution risk.

Final Verdict

Tesla's post-feud rebound reflects market recognition of its asymmetric upside. While near-term risks—regulatory, competitive, and operational—are valid, the Robotaxi launch and FSD's potential to redefine mobility justify optimism. This volatility is a buyer's ally: a $220 entry point offers a margin of safety for those willing to bet on Tesla's transformative vision over political storms.