Tesla's Options Signal Bullish Breakout: Key Strikes and Strategic Plays for 2026

• TSLA trades at $448.39, down 0.22% but clinging to a short-term bullish trend.
• Call open interest dominates at $450–$500 strikes, while puts cluster at $435–$420.
• Block trades in March 2026 options hint at big money positioning for FSD-driven moves.

Here’s the takeaway: Tesla’s options market is betting on a near-term rebound, with heavy call buying at $450–$500 strikes and a bullish pattern forming on the charts. But the stock’s seven-day losing streak and mixed delivery data mean you’ll need to balance optimism with caution. Let’s break it down.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market is a goldmine for hidden signals. Right now, TSLA’s open interest tells a story of cautious bullishness. For this Friday’s expirations, the top call strikes ($450, $460, $500) have combined open interest of 78,964 contracts—nearly double the top puts ($435, $420) at 28,843. That’s not just noise; it’s a crowd of traders expecting a rebound above $450.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $435 strike (OI: 13,771) and $420 (OI: 11,294) act like guardrails. If TSLA breaks below $444.04 (today’s intraday low), those puts could ignite a short-term selloff. The block trades add intrigue: a 900-lot sell of the TSLA20260320C450 call and a similar put trade suggest institutional players are hedging or scaling back bullish bets ahead of March.

News Flow: FSD Pivots and Delivery Woes Collide

Tesla’s shift to a subscription-based FSD model is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it’s a high-margin play that could drive software revenue—hence the 4% stock surge last week. On the other, discontinuing Autopilot risks alienating customers and reducing hardware demand for Nvidia, a key supplier. The Q4 delivery numbers tell a mixed tale: stabilization in the U.S. but an 8.5% annual drop overall. Investors are split—some see a rebound in market share from lower-priced models, others worry BYD’s dominance is here to stay.

This tension shows up in the stock’s price action. The RSI hovering near 50 and Bollinger Bands squeezing suggest a breakout is coming. But until Tesla proves it can grow deliveries again, the bullish case remains fragile.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLA

For options traders: The TSLA20260130C450 call (expiring next Friday) is a prime candidate. With open interest at 9,667 contracts and the stock trading near $448, a break above $450 could trigger a rally toward $470 (where the TSLA20260130C470 call has 9,417 OI). Buy the $450 call if TSLA holds above $448.91 (30D support) and target a 5–7% move before next Friday’s expiry.

For stock traders: Consider entries near $448.91 if the price holds above that level. Set a tight stop-loss below $444.04 (today’s low) and aim for a first target at $452.43 (intraday high). If the stock breaks $455, re-evaluate for a longer-term hold—its 30D moving average at $454.82 is a psychological hurdle.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s story in 2026 hinges on two things: FSD adoption and robotaxi progress. The options market is pricing in a near-term rebound, but the stock’s seven-day slide and delivery challenges mean this isn’t a one-way bet. Keep an eye on the 200D support zone ($425.55–$430.92)—a break below that would validate the puts at $420 and force a reevaluation of the bullish case. For now, the data points to a high-risk, high-reward setup where timing and discipline will separate winners from losers.