Tesla Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid Sales Concerns: Key Strikes to Watch for 2026 Volatility

• TSLA trades at $457.65, down 0.43% from its 2025 high of $463.12
• Open interest shows 394K calls vs. 322K puts (put/call ratio: 0.816), favoring bullish bets
• Block trades hint at hedging ahead of 2026, including a $410 put sold for June 2026

Here’s the thing: Tesla’s options market is painting a picture of cautious optimism. Despite recent sales estimates casting a shadow, the data suggests traders are positioning for a rebound—just not without risk.

Bullish Call OI Dominance vs. Defensive Put Activity: What the Options Chain Reveals

Let’s start with the numbers. This Friday’s options show heavy call open interest at $500 (24,084 contracts) and $480 (13,189), while puts dominate at $250 (23,849) and $260 (13,747). The next Friday’s chain mirrors this pattern, with $500 calls (8,672 OI) and $250 puts (28,660 OI) standing out.

This isn’t just noise. The call skew suggests traders are pricing in a potential rally above $480, while the put activity at $250+ hints at a bearish tail risk. It’s a classic “buy the dip, hedge the fall” playbook. But here’s the twist: the block trade TSLA20260116P410 (a put expiring Jan 16, 2026) was sold, not bought. That could signal a hedge against near-term volatility—or a whale betting against panic.

Sales Estimates vs. Stock Resilience: How Market Sentiment Is Shifting

Tesla’s recent sales guidance—422,850 Q4 deliveries, down 15% YoY—feels bearish on paper. But the stock’s 14% gain in 2025 tells a different story. Why the disconnect?

Think of it like a storm before the calm. The market may already be pricing in the “bad news” (hence the stock’s resilience) while expecting a rebound from the Model Y retooling. The options data backs this up: bullish calls at $500+ imply traders see a path to $480–$520 by early 2026, even if Q4 numbers are soft.

Actionable Plays: Calls for 2026 Volatility and Precision Entries

For options traders, the TSLA20260109C500 call (expiring Jan 9, 2026) stands out. With $500 strikes at $457.65 being ~10% out of the money, it’s a speculative but high-reward play if the stock breaks above its 20-day EMA of $462.46.

Stock buyers, meanwhile, should eye support zones. If TSLA holds above $430.91 (200D support), consider entries near $430–$435 with a target at $480. A breakdown below $425.55 (another key level) would flip the script—so keep stops tight.

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for 2026’s Tesla Narrative

Tesla’s story in 2026 hinges on execution. The options market is pricing in a “V-shaped” recovery—sharp dip, then rebound. But the block trades and put activity at $250+ show hedgers aren’t ignoring the risks.

Bottom line: This is a stock caught between two worlds. The long-term bulls (200D MA at $357) and short-term bears (RSI at 57, MACD negative) are both in play. For traders, the key is to balance aggression with caution—like betting on a comeback but keeping a life jacket handy.