Tesla Options Signal Bullish Bias as Puts Dominate at $250—Here’s How to Play the AI-Driven Rebound

• TSLA trades at $461.99, down 2.78% from $475.19, with price near 200D MA ($355.96) and 30D support ($428.63)
• Options data shows heavy put open interest at $250 (OI: 28,656) and call OI at $500 (OI: 6,347) for next Friday’s expiry
• Block trades highlight a $410 put sold in June 2026 and $410 put bought in January 2026, hinting at hedging or bearish positioning

The market is torn between AI optimism and regulatory risks—but options data leans bullish.The Bull-Bear Crossroads: OTM Options and Whale Moves

Let’s start with the numbers that scream strategy. This Friday’s options chain shows puts dominating at $250 (OI: 42,596) and $190 (OI: 42,596), while calls peak at $500 (OI: 23,204). The put/call ratio of 0.81 for open interest means more capital is betting on upside than downside—but don’t mistake that for a free pass. The $250 put wall suggests institutional players are bracing for a drop below $425 support.

Meanwhile, block trades tell a layered story. The TSLA20260116P410 put sold in January 2026 (volume: 200) hints at hedging against near-term volatility. Contrast that with the TSLA20250919C380 call bought in September 2025 (volume: 1,200)—a whale betting on a rebound months ago. The takeaway? Smart money is hedging downside while keeping the door open for AI-driven rallies.

Robotaxis and Regulatory Headwinds: The News That Shapes the Narrative

Tesla’s stock isn’t just about cars anymore. The robotaxi rollout in Austin and Elon Musk’s December demo (no safety driver!) have investors salivating over AI’s profit potential. But the NHTSA probe into Model 3 door safety adds a wrinkle. Here’s the rub: while the stock’s 28% YTD gain is fueled by AI hype, regulatory risks could trigger a pullback.

The options market isn’t buying the bear case yet. The $250 put wall implies a worst-case scenario of $410–$420 (near 200D MA), but bulls need to defend $460 to keep the long-term trend intact. If robotaxi expansion hits 2026 targets, the $500 call wall could ignite.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Brave, Puts for the Cautious

For the aggressive: Buy the TSLA20260109C500 call (next Friday expiry, OI: 3,242). If TSLA breaks above $469.4 (intraday high) and holds $460, this $500 strike could catch fire. Target: $520–$550 by expiry.

For the cautious: Buy the TSLA20260109P250 put (OI: 28,656). If TSLA dips below $430.60 (30D support), this put could act as insurance. Target: $410–$420 by expiry.

Stock players: Consider entry near $430 if support holds. Set a stop-loss below $425.55 (200D support) and aim for $460–$470. A break above $475.19 (previous close) would validate the long-term bullish case.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Reality Checks

Tesla’s future hinges on two forces: robotaxi adoption and regulatory outcomes. The options market is pricing in a 2026 AI breakout but hedging against near-term dips. For traders, this means a high-risk, high-reward setup. If the NHTSA probe softens and Q4 2025 deliveries hit 440K, the $500 call wall could be a goldmine. But if Musk’s political profile dents brand value or recalls spike, the $250 put wall will be a lifeline.

Bottom line: This is a stock where sentiment swings between “AI revolution” and “overvalued EV.” Right now, the data leans bullish—but don’t ignore the puts. Position yourself to ride the AI wave while hedging the obvious risks.